August Soybeans closed 12 ½ cents higher ($8.90 ½), Sept 10 cents higher ($8.80 ½) & Nov 9 ½ cents higher ($8.83)
August Soybean Meal closed $0.2 higher ($282.2), Sept $0.1 higher ($284.2) & Dec $0.3 higher ($289.8)
August Soybean Oil closed 94 pts higher ($32.00), Sept 94 pts higher ($31.56) & Dec 104 pts higher ($31.55)
USDA announces new crop soybean sales – 258.0 K T. to China, 120 K T. to unknown
Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 100-550 K T. expected – new crop vs. 1.100-1.800 M T. expected
Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 150-450 K T. expected – new crop vs. 150-250 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 8-35 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-5 K T. expected
USDA soybean yield – 53.3 bpa vs. 51.2 expected vs. 49.8 last month
USDA soybean production – 4.425 billion bu. vs. 4.254 expected vs. 4.135 last month
USDA new crop soybean carryout – 610 million bu. vs. 524 expected vs. 425 last month
USDA old crop soybean carryout – 615 million bu. vs. 617 expected vs. 620 last month
USDA World new crop soybean carryout – 95.36 M T. vs. 97.57 expected vs. 95.08 last month
USDA World old crop soybean carryout – 95.85 M T. vs. 99.08 expected vs. 99.67 last month
On the surface there was nothing friendly to the USDA’s US soybean report as production/yield and projected carryout came in higher that most had expected. Granted usage improved but not enough to put a noticeable dent in the data. What I perceived what was friendly was the World data. Global production increased 7.9 M T. yet the projected carryout only increased by 240 K T. A 3.9 M T. lower carryin and 4.4 M T. increase in usage was responsible. Additionally Chinese imports were increased by 3.0 M T. Last but not least – soybean oil rallying 100 pts or so always helps the bullish cause.
In the wake of the recent storm that moved across the “I” states not much is being said about its impact on the soybean crop. Watch your crop ratings for evidence of that next Monday afternoon. I’ll also add I think the USDA got a bit ahead of itself by jacking the yield as much as they did. August, early September, is the critical time frame for establishing the soybean yield. Do they have an insight on the coming weather?
November soybeans once again challenge trendline support (mid-$8.60’s) and it continues to hold. That in itself was good for some short covering considering the perceived bearishness of the US soybean report. Now we get to see just how good the suspected resistance is at the mid-$8.90 level. Yesterday I talked about the recent downflagging price action in soybean oil. That downflagging acted as a springboard to today’s higher prices. December soybean meal brings up the rear with its fractionally higher closes. What’s notable is that the “key” reversal from Monday is still being honored. Take out yesterday’s high ($292.2) and we may have something to talk about.
Daily Support & Resistance – 8/13
Nov Soybeans: $8.75 – $8.92
Dec Soybean Meal: $287.5 – $294.0
Dec Soybean Oil: $31.00 – $32.10
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