Soybeans Commentary

storck

Soybeans – Just My Opinion

August Soybeans closed 16 ¾ cents higher ($9.07 ¼), Sept 15 ¾ cents higher ($8.96 ¼) & Nov 16 ½ cents higher ($8.99 ½)

August Soybean Meal closed $7.9 higher ($290.1), Sept $7.9 higher ($292.1) & Dec $8.9 higher ($298.7)

August Soybean Oil closed 40 pts lower ($31.60), Sept 33 pts lower ($31.23) & Dec 36 pts lower ($31.19)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 570.1 K T. old crop vs. 100-550 K T. expected – 2.839 M T. new crop vs. 1.100-1.800 M T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 182.4 K T. old crop vs. 150-450 K T. expected – 70.0 K T. new crop vs. 150-250 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – <-2.5 K T.> old crop vs. 8-35 K T. expected – 48.7 K T. new crop vs. 0-5 K T. expected

USDA announces new crop soybean export sales – 197.0 K T. to China, 202.0 K T. to unknown

For the past 7 days the USDA has announced soybean sales through their daily reporting system. Today’s weekly sales report blew past the highest guess by 1.0 M T. The trade is also trying to figure out how the soybean crop may have been impacted from the storm earlier this week that blew through the “I” states earlier this week. The trade is a bit concerned about the FSA acreage numbers coming in a bit low. FSA will update these acres again next month. Forecasts have turned dry for a good portion of the Midwest as we move through August. Technical buying was noted today following through from yesterday’s rally. When a market rallies on bearish news (yesterday’s US soybean report) technical traders will take notice. Soybean meal steps up and asserts its leadership in the product markets.

November soybeans appear to be line to challenge the July 6th high at $9.12. Good support has been re-established against the $8.80 level. Now that December meal has established a leadership roll (at least for now) it is supportive for the soybean market. It will be interesting to see if today’s sharp rally can follow through. In the past rallies such as we saw today have turned out to be just 2-day wonders.  I can’t help but notice December soybean oil has set up another double top. This time against the $31.80 level. Both of these challenges against the $31.80 level featured minor downside reversals. If the meal market can continue to rally it will take some of the recent shine off of the bean oil market.

Daily Support & Resistance – 8/14

Nov Soybeans: $8.90 – $9.10 

Dec Soybean Meal: $294.0 – $303.5

Dec Soybean Oil: $30.75 – $31.60 

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.