Sept Soybeans closed 15 ½ cents higher ($9.12 ½), Nov 16 ½ cents higher ($9.15 ¼) & March 17 ¼ cents higher ($9.21 ½)
Sept Soybean Meal closed $6.5 higher ($298.3), Dec $6.6 higher ($305.1) & March $5.9 higher ($305.4)
Sept Soybean Oil closed 24 pts higher ($31.30), Dec 44 pts higher ($31.53) & March 47 pts higher ($31.78)
Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 785.0 K T. vs. 425-800 K T. expected
US Soybean Crop Ratings – 72% GE (-2%) vs. 72% expected vs. 53% year ago – Blooming – 96% vs. 94% 5-year average – Setting Pods – 84% vs. 79% 5-year average
Iowa’s soybean crop rating loses 8% of it GE rating, gains 5% in its P-VP category. The rest of the nation’s not so bad – just my opinion.
November soybeans rally to levels not seen last March. Dryness fears during the ongoing pod-filling time along with the unknown around the possible damage from last week’s windstorm through the “I” sates appear to the primary influences behind today’s rally. Exports remain relatively strong. The unknown impact around last week’s windstorm limits selling. Soy product strength adds to the day’s buying. It’s not too often we see both product with notable strength at the same time. NOPA crush for the month of July comes in higher than expected. Soybean oil stocks continue to ratchet lower while meal exports continue to be relatively strong.
I’m not seeing any Friday to Monday changes within the interior soybean basis even in the states that were impacted by last week’s major windstorm. The midday posting at the Gulf eases from Friday night’s posting but overall remains firm. Soybean spreads were soft out to March and then began tightening. The domestic soybean meal basis remains quiet and has been that way for some time. The export basis for meal is unchanged but firm. Meal spreads were fractionally mixed out to January and then tightened as one went forward.
$9.25 appears to be the next upside target for November soybeans. December soybean meal is looking at the $310.0 level as its next upside target. December soybean oil is looking at $32.10 as its next upside target. Shorter term technical considerations, intra-day, and inter-day data, suggest caution chasing rallies to the aforementioned levels.
The latest forecast ideas suggest a dry 6-10 day and normal moisture beyond.
Daily Support & Resistance – 8/18
Nov Soybeans: $9.05 – $9.25
Dec Soybean Meal: $300.0 – $310.0
Dec Soybean Oil: $30.90 – $32.10
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