Sept Soybeans closed 9 ½ cents lower ($9.03), Nov 8 ¾ cents lower ($9.05 ¼) & March 8 cents lower ($9.13 ¾)
Sept Soybean Meal closed $1.9 lower ($293.8), Dec $1.9 lower ($300.6) & March $1.6 lower ($302.0)
Sept Soybean Oil closed 37 pts lower ($31.30), Dec 45 pts lower ($31.52) & March 43 pts lower ($31.82)
Weekly Soybean Export Sales – <-12.7 K T.> old crop vs. 300-800 K T. expected – 2.573 M T. new crop vs. 2.000-3.100 M T. expected
Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 34.5 K T. old crop vs. 100-300 K T. expected – 155.8 K T. new crop vs. 25-150 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – <-0.1 K T.> old crop vs. 5-30 K T. expected – no new crop vs. 5-30 K T. expected
Weekly export sales for new crop soybeans were nothing less than stout. Then again that’s what the trade was looking for. What happens when you get what was anticipated – you sell the fact. Yes. Its dry out there (getting warmer) and will be until late next week when beneficial rains are being forecasted. It seems the trade is looking at the higher pod counts that the tour is finding and then they are adding in the forecasted moisture. If the rains come as forecasted we will indeed be making a large soybean crop. If the forecasted moisture becomes a bust then we have a new story. Until that time Eustis, until that time.
The interior Midwestern soybean basis runs unchanged. Processors and river locations (not hampered by what’s happening on the Illinois River) are showing the best prices. The Gulf continues to be firm for soybeans. Spreads eased in response to the flat price selling. Not much happens with the cash meal basis. Offers in the interior and for export run unchanged and have been that was for some time now. Meal spreads were flat upfront with a widening bias into the new year.
The November soybean chart is starting to develop an ominous look. Closes below last Friday’s gap ($8.99) will suggest a move down towards the $8.80 – $8.75 level. The other side of that coin is that closes over $9.30 will suggest something closer to $9.70. The last three days of price action for December soybean meal resembles a downflag. Near term support should be $298.0. Closes over $306.0 will get you $310.0 if not higher. $32.00 on up is resistance for December bean oil and so far that is being respected. $31.20 to $31.00 should be support. Maybe I’m out in left field but I’m getting the idea that any further weakness, tomorrow Friday, can be faded for a Sunday night, Monday morning pop higher throughout the complex.
Daily Support & Resistance – 8/21
Nov Soybeans: $8.99 – $9.15
Dec Soybean Meal: $298.0 – $306.0
Dec Soybean Oil: $31.20 – $32.00
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.