Sept Soybeans closed 14 cents higher ($9.13 ¾), Nov 14 ½ cents higher ($9.20 ¼) & March 13 ¾ cents higher ($9.29 ½)
Sept Soybean Meal closed $2.5 higher ($291.6), Dec $3.0 higher ($300.0) & March $2.8 higher ($302.4)
Sept Soybean Oil closed 32 pts higher ($31.98), Dec 33 pts higher ($32.28) & March 35 pts higher ($32.52)
USDA announces soybean export sales – 204.0 K T. to China, 142.5 K T. to unknown
In a phone call on Monday between the trade representatives representing China and the US China reaffirms its commitment to the Phase One trade deal. On the heels of that phone call China buys 204.0 K T. of US soybeans (there was also 142.5 K T. sold to unknown thought to be China as well). Couple this news with the lower than expected downgrade of the US soybean crop yesterday afternoon prices gapped higher Monday evening and kept moving/grinding higher all day long. Given this week’s heat and dryness the trade is already talking about another downgrade to the crop next Monday.
I’m not seeing any notable changes with the interior Midwestern soybean basis. The Gulf eases at its midday posting but still remains firm. Sept eases a touch vs. the Nov in anticipation of Friday’s 1st Notice Day. November forward spreads featured a tightening bias. The meal basis offers continue to run unchanged. Meal spreads saw Sept and Oct ease vs. the Dec while the Dec and Jan were firm with their forward spreads.
$9.20 to $9.30 is thought to be resistance for November soybeans beans. We closed at the low end of that resistance today. Beneficial rain is in the forecasts for later this weekend and into next week and everyone knows about it. Will it be too little too late? The last 5-6 days of Dec meal price action looks like a downflag. If it is a downflag in the beginning of an uptrend it measures to the $316.0 level. If this were to occur you can be sure November beans will fly through the $9.30 level. December soybean oil continues to the “steady-eddy” but sure bull market. $33.00-$33.25 looks like the next upside target.
Daily Support & Resistance – 8/26
Nov Soybeans: $9.10 – $9.30
Dec Soybean Meal: $297.0 – $303.0
Dec Soybean Oil: $31.75 – $32.75
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