Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

Sept Soybeans closed 17 ¾ cents higher ($9.37 ¼), Nov 17 ¾ cents higher ($9.42) & March 15 ½ cents higher ($9.47 ½)

Sept Soybean Meal closed $3.4 higher ($294.9), Dec $3.8 higher ($303.1) & March $3.2 higher ($304.9)

Sept Soybean Oil closed 107 pts higher ($33.31), Dec 97 pts higher ($33.50) & March 93 pts higher ($33.66)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 50.4 K T. old crop vs. 0-200 K T. expected – 1.844 M T. new crop vs. 1.200-2.200 M T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 53.2 K T. old crop vs. 50-200 K T. expected – 97.6 K T. new crop vs. 75-300 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – 1.2 K T. old crop vs. 5-20 K T. expected – 21.2 K T. new crop vs. 0-15 K T. expected

Solid looking weekly export sales for soybeans. It seems some of the private weather forecasters are leaning towards a drier bias for next week. With this said it will be important to see what kind of coverage we see over he weekend and gain on Monday. I have to add that the NWS is having none of this forecast as they continue to call for above normal moisture for a good portion of the Midwest. Adding to the weather worries are the possible effects of  Hurricane Laura in the Delta. Sharp strength in soybean oil aided the soybean rally while the meal market gave us half-hearted attempt at rallying.

The interior Midwestern soybean basis continues to show a mixed look as some want soybeans while other locations don’t. the Gulf market is maintaining its recent strength. Soybean spreads continue to tighten reflecting the strong export demand for the 1st quarter of the new marketing year. Offers to sell cash soybean meal don’t do a whole lot whether its domestic or for export. Nearby meal spreads were soft out to January and then bull spreads took over going forward.

Did we just see the early signs of exhaustion with the soybean oil rally that has been going on since mid-April? The rally had been going on in a well formed channel and now it explodes out of that channel to the upside. The recent downflagging action in soybean meal appears to be trying to springboard higher. This is probably some of the more positive price action I’ve seen in some time. November soybean blow through the suspected $9.30 resistance like it wasn’t there. $9.50 may provide some psychological resistance while the best looking technical resistance is now something closer to the $9.70 level. New support is now $9.20 to $9.10. For the near term it will be all about how the weather/forecasts develops over the next 3-5 days.

Daily Support & Resistance – 8/28

Nov Soybeans: $9.32 – $9.50 (?)

Dec Soybean Meal: $300.0 – $309.0

Dec Soybean Oil: $33.00 – $34.00 

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