Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

Sept Soybeans closed 7 ½ cents higher ($9.62 ½), Nov 7 ¼ cents higher ($9.62) & March 8 cents higher ($9.69 ¾)

Sept Soybean Meal closed $0.5 lower ($302.3), Dec $0.6 lower ($310.2) & March $1.0 lower ($312.8)

Sept Soybean Oil closed 55 pts higher ($33.67), Dec 65 pts higher ($33.53) & March 63 pts higher ($33.76)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 0-100 K T. expected – new crop vs. 1.000-1.800 M T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 25-125 K T. expected – new crop vs. 50-250 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 0-10 K T. expected – new crop vs. 5-30 K T. expected

Rumors of renewed Chinese interest (late reports suggest 8 cargoes) buoys soybean prices on Wednesday. Couple this with the idea the USDA will lower yields and quite possibly harvested acres (Iowa) has technical corrective breaks being well received. Recent rainfall missed the dry areas of Iowa. Some, not all, forecasters are suggesting the possibility of a frost in the far northern areas for mid-late next week.. If you recall N. Dakota had a fair amount of problems this spring due to excessive moisture. Soybean oil carried the ball in the product markets as demand from the bio-diesel market coupled with a better palm market buoyed prices.

The interior Midwestern cash soybean market still appears to be on the defensive. I have to think this is a result of some old crop movement. Board crush margins have been slipping for the past week and a half. The gulf market for soybeans continues to hold its own. Upfront soybean spreads ran steady on the day but lost to March forward. Not much happens in the cash meal market. Interior offers are steady in the truck market, steady to a shade better in the rail market. The Gulf market for meal is steady. Meal spreads had a very slight bullish bias.

I get the impression the November soybean market, once again, wants to test the suspected resistance at $9.70. December meal has a minor downflagging appearance following Monday’s high. The last time Dec meal had a downflagging appearance it was good for a $15-$18 rally. December soybean oil is in a minor consolidation following Monday’s suggested downside reversal. We have yet to see any downside follow through but it looks like the $32.70-$32.65 level is developing into a jumping off point for recent buyers if we close below that level.

Daily Support & Resistance – 9/03

Nov Soybeans: $9.50 – $9.70

Dec Soybean Meal: $306.0 – $316.0

Dec Soybean Oil: $32.90 – $34.10 

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