Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

Sept Soybeans closed 6 ¼ cents higher ($9.68 ¾), Nov 4 cents higher ($9.66) & March 3 cents higher ($9.72 ¾)

Sept Soybean Meal closed $2.9 higher ($305.2), Dec $2.6 higher ($312.8) & March $2.4 higher ($315.2)

Sept Soybean Oil closed 20 pts lower ($33.47), Dec 24 pts lower ($33.29) & March 20 pts lower ($33.76)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 88.2 K T. old crop vs. 0-100 K T. expected – 1.762 M T. new crop vs. 1.000-1.800 M T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 113.7 K T. old crop vs. 25-125 K T. expected – 228.8 K T. new crop vs. 50-250 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – 4.9 K T. old crop vs. 0-10 K T. expected – 3.0 K T. new crop vs. 5-30 K T. expected

USDA announces Soybean export sales – 318 K T. to Unknown, 132 K T. China

Solid weekly export sales near the high end of expectations. This and the daily announced sale of 450 K T. worked to keep the soybean market firm. The products market saw a flip-flop in the daily leadership as the meal market took over while soybean oil sagged a bit. Soybean meal weekly export sales were pretty decent while soybean oil weekly export sales were nothing to write home about. Working to support the complex is the idea the USDA will lower yield, possibly lower harvested acres, and increase demand all leading to a lower  projected carryout.

The Midwestern interior soybean basis runs steady to lower. The processor basis looks defensive as board crush margins continue to ebb lower. Savanna, Il on the Mississippi improves by 2 cents while Davenport, IA falls out of bed. The Gulf basis holds its own as the new crop export program is front end loaded. Soybean spreads, November forward, showed a tightening bias but still not from recent lows. Offers to sell cash soybean meal don’t do much whether its for domestic usage or for export. Meal spreads tightened fractionally.

The November soybean chart stays firm looking but still honoring the suspected resistance at $9.70. The recent downflagging in December soybean meal is trying to springboard higher. December soybean oil makes an effort to challenge suspected resistance just above $34.00 but reverses back lower. The suggested downside reversal that was scored last Monday remains intact.

Daily Support & Resistance – 9/04

Nov Soybeans: $9.55 – $9.71

Dec Soybean Meal: $308.0 – $316.0

Dec Soybean Oil: $32.70 – $33.80 

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