Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

Nov Soybeans closed 19 ¾ cents higher ($10.11 ¼), March 18 ¼ cents higher ($10.14 ¼) & July 15 ½ cents higher ($10.15 ½)

October Soybean Meal closed $6.5 higher ($320.8), Dec $6.5 higher (325.7)  & March $5.5 higher ($327.1)

October Soybean Oil closed 86 pts higher ($34.94), Dec 76 pts higher ($34.91) & March 64 pts higher ($34.98)

USDA announces Soybean Export Sales – 327 K T. sold to China

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 1.500-2.800 M T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 25-100 K T. expected – new crop vs. 200-450 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 0-10 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-30 K T. expected

Over the previous 2 days soybeans correct 23-24 cents from the Sunday night high. China is still buying US soybeans. Couple the correction with the continued Chinese buying was enough for the funds to come after the soybean complex. The end result was new contract highs for soybeans, new highs for the months’ old rally in soybean oil and soybean meal coming within a dollar or so of its Sunday night high. The story behind the soybean rally has not changed – anticipation of a lower yield/carryout in the US and continued Chinese buying at least until the new crop from Brazil comes online. Soybean oil has its own story and that’s the surging competing veg oils, sun oil in particular. Meal goes along for the ride with the idea that crusher demand will have to compete with exporter demand.

The interior cash soybean markets are running steady to easier due to soybean harvest being right around the corner. The Gulf basis eases as well in anticipation of better movement shortly down the road. Soybean spreads firmed in response to the renewed fund buying. Not much happens with the cash meal basis. Spreads did firm in response to the fund buying.

Nothing bearish about new contract highs, new contract high closes in the soybean market. A technical overbought scenario is taking back seat to potentially bullish fundamentals. The recent 1 ½ days of correction measures to something closer to $10.32. The other day I talked about Dec bean oil targeting the $35.00-$35.25 level – we’re just about there. Not to be left out of the fray Dec Meal’s recent attempt to correct ($10.0) now target’s the mid-high $330.0’s. tomorrow is export sales day and big soybean numbers are expected so I doubt we see much backing and filling in tonight’s night session.

Daily Support & Resistance – 9/17

Nov Soybeans: $9.98 – $10.25 (?)

Dec Bean Meal: $321.0 – $331.0 (?)

Dec Bean Oil: $34.30 – $35.25 (?) 

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