Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

Nov Soybeans closed 17 ¼ cents higher ($10.28 ½), March 9 ½ cents higher ($10.23 ¾) & July 4 ¼ cents higher ($10.19 ¾)

October Soybean Meal closed $9.6 higher ($330.4), Dec $9.6 higher (335.3)  & March $6.2 higher ($333.3)

October Soybean Oil closed 3 pts lower ($34.91), Dec 5 pts lower ($34.86) & March 1 pt higher ($34.99)

USDA announces Soybean Export Sales – 264 K T. sold to China; 360.5 K T. sold to Unknown

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 2.457 M T. old crop vs. 1.500-2.800 M T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – <-105.5 K T.> old crop vs. 25-100 K T. expected – 197.3 K T. new crop vs. 200-450 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – 0.1 K T. old crop vs. 0-10 K T. expected – no new crop vs. 0-30 K T. expected

Solid looking weekly export soybean sales and more announced daily sales keeps the participants buying any and all dips that are occurring. Soybean meal is the upside leader as its export market looks stronger along with the general fear that soybean export demand will leave less soybeans for the processor.

Most interior cash soybean markets (basis) continue to show a defensive posture. The lack of carry within the price structure is asking for cash soybean now, not later. I can’t help but notice the drop-off in price gains after the month of January. This holds true for the soybean meal market as well. The Gulf basis for soybeans has eased over the past couple of days but it is still quite strong. A long story short – its about demand right now not so much after the first of the year.

Yesterday I talked about $10.32 as a target for November soybeans – that was today’s high. I talked about $35.00-$35.25 being a target for December soybean oil – today’s high was $35.19. My recent goal for December soybean meal was the mid-high $330.0’s – today’s high was just shy of $336.0. Since all of my short term targets have been attained I don’t know what to do next. The 14-day RSI for November soybeans is 85. I can’t chase this market higher with that kind of RSI even though I’ve learned markets will go higher vs. what we feel is reasonable. As in corn am I premature with the idea we can see some weekend pre-hedging due to harvest just beginning?

Daily Support & Resistance – 9/18

Nov Soybeans: $10.15 – $10.35 (?)

Dec Bean Meal: $328.0 – $337.0 (?)

Dec Bean Oil: $34.50 – $35.25 (?) 

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