May Soybeans closed 3 ½ cents lower ($9.05 ¾), July 3 ¾ cents lower ($9.19 ¼) & Nov 3 ½ cents lower ($9.39)
May Soybean Meal closed $1.0 lower ($309.8), July $1.0 lower ($313.5) & Dec $1.2 lower ($318.5)
May Soybean Oil closed 1 pt higher ($29.44), July 2 pts higher ($29.76) & Dec 2 pts higher ($30.47)
Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 841.8 K T. vs. 800 K – 1.000 M T. expected – Cumulative Inspections – 27.688 M T. vs. 40.230 M T. year ago
Over the weekend it was suggested by some that any finalization of a China/US trade deal won’t happen until June; last week the time frame for this was sometime in April. Needless to say the window is closing fairly quickly for any meaningful old crop business. At month’s end we’ll see the Quarterly soybean stocks data; it will be a big number; the question being how big. Acreage, however, will hinge on how much of a reduction we see vs. last year’s 89.2 million. The few estimates I’ve seen so far range from down 1.5 million to down 6.7 million. The low number is from the USDA Outlook meeting in February. Weekly export inspections were soft looking vs. expectations. The SA soybean crop continues to finish in relatively fine form.
The interior soybean basis is mostly steady from the processor. River locations continue to firm. The midday Gulf basis eases from Friday night’s posting. Cash soybean movement remains nothing to write home about. Soybean spreads ran fractionally mixed on the day. The interior offers for cash meal ran mostly steady with one or two locations reading slightly higher. Gulf offers of soybean meal are fully steady with a firm undertone. Meal spreads within the crop year were flat while old crop gains fractionally on the new crop.
Last week I talked about the soybean market’s recent rally looking like an upflag in a downtrend; it still looks like that. the first decent looking minor resistance level for May soybeans is the $9.15 level. We’ve come within a few cents of that level and so far it is holding the attempts to rally. The trade wants to talk about record spec shorts in the corn market; it’s not so much in the soybean market. For some reason unbeknownst to me the trade is trying to hang on to the idea that if we get a trade deal with China its going to radically change the make-up of the old crop supply-demand tables. As of this writing I’m with the idea that May soybeans will move into a minor trading affair between $8.90 and $9.15. Last week soybean meal gave us a false break-out to the downside and since then has popped back up into its months old trading range. As far as I’m concerned $315.0 May meal is still formidable resistance. Soybean oil continues to be in a liquidation mode but as of this writing I don’t see it below $29.00.
Daily Support & Resistance for 03/19
May Soybeans: $8.95 – $9.15
May Soybean Meal: $305.5 – 313.5
May Soybean Oil: $29.00 – $29.80
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.