Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

Nov Soybeans closed 12 ¼ cents higher ($10.56 ¼), March 5 ¼ cents higher ($10.42 ½) & July 3 ½ cents higher ($10.42)

October Soybean Meal expired $0.1 lower ($358.4), Dec closed $7.6 higher ($363.6) & July $2.6 higher ($345.8)

October Soybean Oil expired unchanged ($33.72), Dec closed 26 pts higher ($33.88) & July 16 pts higher ($33.74)

USDA announces Soybean Export Sales – 264.0 K T. sold to China

After a 4-5 day hiatus China returns to the US soybean market. The delayed start to Brazilian soybean planting, ongoing dryness in Argentina and now an Argentine Crusher strike all acted together as fuel for today’s rally in the soybean complex. Gulf values for soybeans continues to be strong. The interior Midwestern soybean basis continues to reflect the ongoing harvest. I can’t imagine the weak harvest related interior soybean basis should last much longer as the eventuality is the crusher and the exporter will have to compete for the same bushels. It should be noted that the basis at Savanna, IL (on the Mississippi River) jumps their bean basis 13 cents. Long story short – the US export program remains quite front-end loaded; nearby spreads should continue to tighten. Given this one can already opine November soybean deliveries will be few and far between.

It appears the low $10.70’s (Nov) will be challenged in relatively short order. If the Argentine crusher strike continues beyond a few days it should have Dec meal testing last week’s contract high ($372.1). Dec soybean oil will continue to go along for the ride higher. It is my thought Dec bean oil wants to take another look at the $35.00 level.

Daily Support & Resistance – 10/15

Nov Soybeans – $10.48 – $10.70

Dec Soy Meal – $358.0 – $370.0

Dec Soy Oil – $33.40 – $34.50

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