Nov Soybeans closed 4 ¼ cents higher ($10.54 ¼), March 4 ½ cents higher ($10.42 ¼) & July 4 ¼ cents higher ($10.39 ½)
December Soybean Meal closed $5.7 higher ($373.2), March $4.7 higher ($359.0) & July $2.9 higher ($349.9)
December Soybean Oil closed 46 pts lower ($32.53), March 42 pts lower ($32.53) & July 39 pts lower ($32.57)
Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 2.173 M T. vs. 1.200-2.200 M T. expected
Weekly US Soybean Progress – Dropping Leaves – 97% vs. 95% 5-year average – Harvested – 75% vs. 79% expected vs. 58% 5-year average
The modestly higher soybean market (+$212.40) appears to be caught between the firm meal market (+$570.00) vs. the failing soybean oil market (-$276.00). Weekly export inspections remain quite stout. Widespread rain has yet to hit the Brazilian soybean areas resulting in a continued slow planting pace. Forecasters are trying to suggest that widespread rains are expected by next week and continue into the first couple of weeks of November. Given the planting delays Brazil is experiencing the thought is now that soybeans available for export won’t happen until mid-February at the earliest. This has March soybeans the strongest contract of the day. The meal market continues to be strong due to the competition between exporters and processors for soybean origination. Soybean oil moves lower from technical selling, lower palm prices and continued inter-market spreading favoring long meal.
The interior Midwestern soybean basis runs mixed. Locations where harvest has come and gone the soybean basis is noticeably higher. Board crush continue to move higher enabling the processor to reach for cash soybeans. The Gulf basis for soybeans continues to be strong. Soybean spreads ran steady to fractionally mixed on the day with underlying firm bias. Offers to sell cash meal continue to be firm whether it for the domestic market or the export market. Meal spreads ran clearly firmer/tighter on the day.
Soybean charts sustain their upflagging formation that started 5 days ago stemming from last Monday’s break. Take out last Monday’s low with any conviction will prompt a wave of liquidation. Personally I’m still waiting to see a week ago Friday’s high ($10.79 ¾ Nov) to be tested. Soybean meal negates Friday’s suggested minor reversal. It is a bit concerning that today we registered a new contract high and close but with a relatively tight daily trading range. It’s almost like the market has gone quiet at the top. Is Dec soybean oil really going to trade down to the $32.00 level if not lower?
Daily Support & Resistance – 10/20
Nov Soybeans: $10.40 – $10.70
Dec Soy Meal: $364.0 – ???
Dec Soy Oil: $32.00 – $33.00
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.