Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

Nov Soybeans closed 9 ¾ cents higher ($10.64), March 10 ¾ cents higher ($10.53) & July 10 ¼ cents higher ($10.49 ¾)

December Soybean Meal closed $1.3 lower ($371.9), March unchanged ($359.0) & July $0.9 higher ($350.8)

December Soybean Oil closed 78 pts higher ($33.31), March 76 pts higher ($33.30) & July 77 pts lower ($33.34)

USDA announces Soybean Export Sales – 132 K T. sold to Unknown

With soybean harvest at the 75% completion level it is not expected to see much more cash movement despite interior Midwestern basis levels and Gulf basis levels moving higher. Any forward selling out of SA has ground to a halt given the ongoing dry conditions delaying planting. Yes, there is rain in the forecasts for both Brazil and Argentine but producers down there will want to see it actually occur and how much will occur before planting resumes. Available exportable supply of soybeans out of SA is being pushed back in line with the delayed planting. Speculation is now suggesting that if the rains came today Brazil would not have soybeans ready for export until the latter half of February. The is pushing some price premium into the March time slot. If we are seeing this you can be sure China is seeing this as well.

The November soybean chart action still looks like an upflag. Near term resistance levels continue to be $10.71 followed by the October 9th high $10.79 ¾. The first sign of this flag rolling over would be closes below the $10.50 level. December meal registered a reversal today with the new highs for the move followed by an outside day with a slightly lower close. $380.0 looks like formidable resistance on the weekly charts. December soybean oil saw some bottom picking today as prices neared the $32.00 level ($32.30 has been the recent low). We also saw a fair amount of profit taking on the long meal/short bean oil spreads which lent support to the bean oil rally. Overall I’m thinking that until we see the weather change to more beneficial conditions in SA the US soybean complex will be reluctant to break down.

Daily Support & Resistance – 10/21

Nov Soybeans: $10.50 – $10.75

Dec Soy Meal: $367.0 – 378.0

Dec Soy Oil: $32.80 – $33.85

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