Nov Soybeans closed 4 cents higher ($10.87 ¾), March 1 ½ cents higher ($10.69) & July 1 ¼ cents lower ($10.58 ½)
December Soybean Meal closed $3.2 higher ($389.6), March $2.1 higher ($369.1) & July $0.9 lower ($352.7)
December Soybean Oil closed 35 pts higher ($34.46), March 19 pts higher ($33.96) & July 11 pts higher ($33.67)
USDA announces Export Sales – 120.7 K T. soybeans sold to unknown, 135 K T. soybean meal sold to Philippines
Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 2.664 M T. vs. 2.317 M T. last week
Weekly US Soybean Crop Progress – Harvested – 83% vs. 86% expected vs. 73%-year average
It looks like better moisture is on its way for the areas of Brazil that have been waiting for it to resume planting. The early break on this morning’s re-opening stemmed from that news as well as the idea that maybe the “large spec” and the “managed” sector are getting a bit too long. As of last Tuesday the “large spec” was long 189 K soybean contracts and the “managed” sector was long 231.8 K soybean contracts. Since last Tuesday nearby soybean are up another 20-25 cents. Adding to the strength of the soybean market is the soybean meal market; it refuses to back down. Now we have soybean oil joining in the fun as palm oil’s strength is more than offsetting the fears from the virus cutting into food demand.
Both the interior cash soybean market and export market continue to show an exceptionally strong basis. The Nov/Jan spread closed at a 4 cent inverse. Friday is 1st Notice Day for November soybeans and as of this writing I doubt we’ll see any deliveries. This scenario holds true for both the interior and export markets for soybean meal. I’m still showing the processor vying with the exporter for soybean origination.
Are you seeing anything bearish with the nearby price action throughout the soy complex? I’m not!! Granted our export program is extremely front-end loaded. The success or failure of the SA growing season will dictate if the March forward contracts can pick up where the nearby leaves off. For now I have to think the shorts in Nov beans and Dec products are going to get squeezed big time.
Daily Support & Resistance – 10/27
Jan Soybeans: $10.70 – $10.90 (?)
Dec Soy Meal: $382.0 – ???
Dec Soy Oil: $34.00 – $35.00
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.