Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

Jan Soybeans closed 6 cents higher ($11.75 ¾), March 6 ¼ cents higher ($11.74 ¾) & July 7 ¾ cents higher ($11.67 ¼)

December Soybean Meal closed $0.9 lower ($394.9), March $0.9 lower ($390.5) & July $0.6 lower ($382.4)

December Soybean Oil closed 96 pts higher ($38.46), March 82 pts higher ($37.86) & July 72 pts higher ($37.23)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 600 K – 1.200 M T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 100-300 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 8-40 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

Soybean oil exploding into new high ground keeps the soybean market alive. Soybean meal continuing to balk at the $400 per T. level drags soybeans off of their new highs for the ongoing rally. Interior cash soybean basis levels appear to be stabilizing while running mixed on the day. The Gulf basis for soybeans continues to not impress. I’m still with the frame of mind that Gulf is plugged with soybeans and no room for more at this time. The midday posting at the Gulf showed the bid as unquoted and offers just steady with last night. Soybean spreads are easing with the day’s best strength showing in the July contract. Weather in SA remains supportive as we continue to see scattered moisture in the central regions of Brazil while southern Brazil and Argentina continue to show the drier than normal trend. Weekly export sales are out in the morning and I can’t help but notice that sales’ expectations are coming down vs. recent weeks’ expectations.

Soybeans register new highs and new high closes. Can’t help but notice that although we saw new high closes Jan and March soybeans did not close in new high ground. Are Jan and March soybeans trying to tell us something by finishing 14-13 cents off of their day’s highs? Soybean meal’s balking at the $400.0 level is definitely worth questioning.  The explosive strength in soybean oil will work to the keep the soybean market alive unless soybean meal decides to do a sewer shot. Weekly export sales as well as SA weather updates will/should dictate direction for the balance of the week.

Daily Support & Resistance – 11/19

Jan Beans: $11.63 ($11.56) – $11.90

Jan Soy Meal: $389.0 ($385.0) – $395.0

Jan Soy Oil: $37.80 – ???

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.