Jan Soybeans closed 6 ½ cents lower ($11.62), March 6 ½ cents lower ($11.63) & July 6 ¼ cents lower ($11.58 ½)
December Soybean Meal closed $0.4 higher ($393.5), March $0.5 lower ($388.7) & July $0.1 lower ($383.3)
December Soybean Oil closed 48 pts lower ($37.40), March 41 pts lower ($36.86) & July 35 pts lower ($36.57)
There appears to be enough recent beneficial weather and forecasts for southern Brazil and Argentina to keep the soybean market on the defensive. Forecasts for the drier areas of Brazil suggests some relief in the early part of the latest 6-10 day forecast. An early attempt to stabilize from yesterday’s sell off failed prompting further selling. It was the meal market seeing only minor losses that kept the soybean market from further losses. Soybean oil is now advertising that a top is in place. Argentina is looking at another labor strike which probably gave the meal market some left-handed support.
The interior soybean basis runs steady to better. This goes along with slightly better gulf values. Exporters are working to fill previous sales which brings the basis back from recent weakness. Don’t confuse the demand to fill these shipments with new sales. New sales are declining as China is focusing on the Brazilian new crop which should be come available in late January, early February. This is contingent on successful Brazilian soybean crop. Soybean spreads ran mixed in the old crop while old crop is seeing minor losses to the new crop.
The mid-to low $11.50’s soybeans should represent some near term support for January soybeans. There is a minor gap at $11.55 from two weeks ago. Failure there would suggest something closer to the $11.40 level. Jan meal is trying to realize support at the $389.0 level but as of this writing the price action clearly looks to be on the defensive. Jan bean oil appears to be advertising another 100 pts lower ($36.00). All in all the entire soybean complex is starting to look like its on thin ice.
Daily Support & Resistance – 12/02
Jan Beans: $11.53 ½ – $11.72
Jan Soy Meal: $384.0 – $394.0
Jan Soy Oil: $36.50 – $37.50
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