Jan Soybeans closed 9 cents lower ($11.53), March 8 ¼ cents lower ($11.54 ¾) & July 9 ½ cents lower ($11.49)
December Soybean Meal closed $4.0 higher ($389.5), March $4.5 lower ($384.2) & July $3.7 lower ($379.6)
December Soybean Oil closed 7 pts higher ($37.47), March 9 pts lower ($36.77) & July 7 pts lower ($36.50)
Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 400 K – 1.150 M T. expected – new crop vs. none expected
Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 100-300 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected
Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 8-40 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected
You had better like volatility as we saw a great example of that today; sharply lower to unchanged only to finish modestly lower. The night session dumps lower on SA weather/forecasts. Argentina is seeing some greatly beneficial rains and those are expected to move into southern Brazil. Mato Grosso continues to be hot & dry yet forecasters are trying to suggest they will get some rain by the middle of next week if not sooner. The attempted rally back in the day session was mostly about voids of overhead selling. The rains we are seeing in Argentina and southern Brazil are only half of the battle as the dry areas of Brazil account for 30% of their production. I continue with the belief that weekly soybean sales will continue to edge lower while shipments should stay relatively stout.
The interior soybean basis reads steady to better as does the Gulf. Soybean spreads ran mixed in the old crop while the old crop/new crop soybean spreads continue to see some modest pressure. The easing of the July/Nov spread is consistent with the liquidation of the recent bull run in the flat price.
Heaven help the bulls if we see a conclusive close below the $11.40 level as that would suggest something closer to $10.90. It has been my experience that when weather inspired bull markets turn bearish we beat it up in the first of the week while the last half of the week tries to retrace those losses back to newly established resistance levels only to roll over when the new week starts. It would not surprise me to see to this type of scenario develop especially if recent SA weather forecasts hold true. I’ll be watching to see if this develops not only for the soybean market but in the product markets as well. As in corn the daily technical momentum indicators clearly read lower for the entire soybean complex. These suggest we’re supposed to be selling rallies to resistance.
Daily Support & Resistance – 12/03
Jan Beans: $11.45 – $11.65
Jan Soy Meal: $382.0 – $391.0
Jan Soy Oil: $36.50 – $37.50
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