Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

Jan Soybeans closed 8 ¼ cents lower ($12.55 ¼), March 7 ¼ cents lower ($12.57 ¼) & July 8 cents lower ($12.49 ¼)

Jan Soybean Meal closed $1.5 lower ($415.3), March $1.4 lower ($412.7) & July $1.4 lower ($407.9)

Jan Soybean Oil closed 12 pts lower ($41.72), March 8 pts lower ($41.05) & July 9 pts lower ($39.86)

USDA announces Soybean Export Sales – 233.7 K T. old crop to unknown – 125.0 K T. new crop to Unknown

USDA announces Soybean Oil Export Sales – 33.0 K to unknown

Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 1.447 M T. vs. 1.625-2.500 M T. expected

The soy complex trades higher Sunday night influenced by iffy SA weather as well as the ongoing Argentine labor strike. Prices start to slip when it becomes known that export companies in Argentina are ready to offer labor unions something much closer to what they want on Tuesday (tomorrow). Trade selling became fast and furious at the Monday morning re-opening; soybean prices registered as much as 17-18 cents lower, soybean meal near $5.0 lower and bean oil near 60 pts lower. Once the lows were set short covering was able to bring prices back to unchanged but as the day went on the rally was unable to sustain itself. Weather in SA remains iffy at best as I’m not seeing broad amounts of moisture with general coverage.

Interior cash soybean basis runs steady on the day but with a firm undertone. Movement is nothing to write home about. The Gulf basis stays firm as well. Nearby spreads ran mixed. Jan loses to March ahead of 1st Notice Day (this Friday). March gains fractionally out to July. Old crop/new crop spreads registered a noticeably correction. Cash meal offers run unchanged on the day for both domestic and export. Meal spreads mirrored the soybean spreads.

Soybeans’ flat price registers a noticeable reversal. Soybean meal stumbles at last week’s high while soybean oil registers a minor reversal. Tomorrow’s direction will take its cue from the outcome of the scheduled labor talks in SA. Year-end position squaring will continue to be a factor for the balance of the week. SA weather will continue to be an  underlying factor.

Daily Support & Resistance – 12/29

March Beans : $12.40 – $12.70

March Meal: $405.0 – $420.0

March Bean Oil: $40.50 – $41.50

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.