Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

Jan Soybeans closed 1 ¼ cents higher ($13.16 ½), March 2 cents higher ($13.13) & July 6 ¼ cents higher ($13.03 ¾)

Jan Soybean Meal closed $7.2 lower ($427.2), March $5.7 lower ($423.7) & July $0.5 lower ($419.0)

Jan Soybean Oil closed 40 pts lower ($42.93), March 27 pts lower ($42.13) & July 3 pts lower ($40.91)

Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 1.305 M T. vs. 1.000-2.000 M T. expected

The soy complex gapped/zoomed higher Sunday and then went into a correction mode during Monday’s day session. The Sunday night rally was all about what we were trading last week; concerns over the SA soybean crop due to their dry bias as well as the idea we are going to get a bullish report from the USDA next Tuesday. “Price Rationing” has become the buzz phrase behind the rally. I think the rationale behind the day’s correction was mostly technical in nature as the Sunday night highs were suggesting the daily RSI was in the mid-high 80’s.

Not much happens with the Midwestern interior soybean basis; The Ohio River is a bit better while Davenport, IA is a touch lower. The overall tone of the interior cash market continues to be firm. The Gulf eases slightly from last Thursday’s posting. Soybean spreads were correcting within the old crop while old crop gives some back to the new crop. The correction in the spreads is in keeping with the corrective nature of the flat price.

Given today’s corrective nature in the price action it would not surprise me to see some consolidation, maybe some further backing and filling, as we head into next Tuesday’s USDA production/Supply-Demand update. Along with this data the USDA will also give us Quarterly Stocks (as of December 1st). Despite the trade expecting to see bullish data common sense (at least my common sense) suggests some sort of pause ahead of this data.

Daily Support & Resistance – 01/05

March Beans : $13.00 – $13.35

March Meal: $418.0 – $430.0

March Bean Oil: $41.60 – $43.00

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