Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

Jan Soybeans closed 4 ¾ cents lower ($13.60 ½), March 6 ¼ cents lower ($13.55 ¼) & July 5 ¼ cents lower ($13.41 ¾)

Jan Soybean Meal closed $5.3 lower ($438.0), March $6.1 lower ($432.2) & July $2.7 lower ($427.1)

Jan Soybean Oil closed 4 pts lower ($44.35), March 5 pts lower ($43.79) & July 14 pts higher ($42.86)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 37.0 K T. old crop vs. 400-800 K T. expected – 79.8 K T. new crop vs. 100-300 K T. exp.

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 124.1 K T. old crop vs. 75-250 K T. expected – 0.7 K T. new crop vs. none expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – 3.6 K T. old crop vs. 20-65 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected

USDA announces soybean sales – 213.35 K T. old crop to unknown – 130.0 K T. new crop to unknown

The soybean complex finally gives a day of correction but based on where we finished it wasn’t much. Lows came early from the extremely poor looking weekly export sales. Late short covering allowed soybeans to finish with only modest losses and soybean oil barely worse than steady upfront and higher May forward. Soybean meal struggled most of the day. Recent labor issues have been settled in Argentina. Weather ideas of SA lean towards better weather for crop development.

Interior Midwestern cash soybean prices remain steady for the most part with really no signs of backing off. The Gulf basis at the midday posting continues to show it is standing tall. Bull spreads were correcting throughout the complex which was consistent with the profit taking nature in the flat price trade.

After looking at the traders estimates from the Reuters poll I’m with the idea we’re near being appropriately priced if that suggested data come to fruition. Technical considerations suggest the complex can easily go into a nasty correction but until but until we have a better handle on SA production I’m not sure a sharp break can last too long. For the next couple of days I would expect a similar trade to what we saw today.

Daily & Resistance – 01/08

March Beans : $13.46 – $13.70

March Meal: $429.0 – $440.0

March Bean Oil: $43.40 – $44.40

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.