Jan Soybeans expired 25 ½ cents higher ($14.36 ½), March closed 24 ¼ cents higher ($14.30 ½) & July 24 ¾ cents higher ($14.13 ¼)
Jan Soybean Meal expired $2.5 higher ($464.9), March closed $7.8 higher ($464.9) & July $6.3 higher ($456.2)
Jan Soybean Oil expired 59 pts higher ($43.27), March closed 93 pts higher ($43.11) & July 67 pts higher ($42.35)
Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 908.0 K T. old crop vs. 300-700 K T. expected – 326.0 K T. new crop vs. 100-500 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 337.4 K T. old crop vs. 100-300 K T. expected – 60.0 K T. new crop vs. none expected
Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – 11.1 K T. old crop vs. 5-30 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected
Weekly soybean and soybean meal export sales snap back for the previous week’s meager numbers. It also looks like Monday soybean export inspections were understated once again. The weather/forecasts for Brazil look okay while Argentine forecasts remain iffy looking. There is rain forecasted for the weekend but after that Argentina is called to dry out once again. Today brought us a reminder that a Brazilian trucker strike is called for February 1st. Back in 2018 they had one for the same time frame and it tied things up so much US futures rallied $1.00 in one month’s time. The rally then started from much lower levels. If the strike lasts for any length of time given the Chinese appetite for soybeans who knows what kind of knee-jerk higher we could see.
Interior Midwestern cash soybean markets are starting to show some signs of waffling from recent strength. The gulf market, however, is not showing any signs of backing down (at least not at the midday posting). Soybean spreads ran fractionally mixed in the old crop while old crop tries to get back some of what it lost yesterday vs. the new crop.
Board crush margins are trying to show signs of support in the March while July margins continue to move lower. AS long as these crush margins stay on the defensive it is supportive for the meal market.
Tomorrow is Friday and that brings us a 3-day weekend. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some profit taking or at least some consolidation. Overall the price action has nothing bearish to it despite the minor interim reversal that was registered for beans and meal and Wednesday. Soybean oil is trying to say it has had enough of a correction for the time being. If March bean oil can close above the $44.00 level it will suggest another leg higher. NOPA crush is out tomorrow and in recent months it has been friendly for both beans and meal not so much for bean oil.
Daily & Resistance – 01/15
March Beans : $14.15 – ???
March Meal: $455.0 – $475.0 (?)
March Bean Oil: $42.40 – $43.60
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