Soybeans Commentary

storck

Soybeans – Just My Opinion

March Soybeans closed 31 cents lower ($13.85 ¾), July 31 ¾ cents lower ($13.69 ¼) & Nov 9 cents lower (11.88 ¾)

March Soybean Meal $12.7 lower ($450.5), July closed $10.8 lower ($443.0) & Dec $1.7 lower ($391.9)

March Soybean Oil closed 15 pts lower ($41.70), July closed 49 pts lower ($40.72) & Dec 70 pts lower ($38.14)

USDA announces Soybean Export Sales – 132 K T. new crop China

Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 2.058 M T. vs. 900 K – 1.850 M T. expected

Decent weather for maturing Brazilian soybeans sets the tone for the day after attempting higher prices in the Monday night session. Near term forecasts for Brazil remain conducive for final development in Mato Grosso while further south rain will be hit or miss. Argentine it seems gets rain every 4or 5 days then turns dry. That’s the current forecast as it follows rains late last week. Export shipments remain barely short of stellar. Recent daily announced export sales now have a two-day total of 450 K T. and it’s all for new crop.

I’m not seeing much change with the interior Midwestern soybean basis; call them mixed for now. The midday posting at the Gulf show bids not really clear while offers remain firm. Board crush margins are trying to stabilize at recent depressed levels. Soybean spreads ran mixed within the current crop year while old crop loses to the new crop which is consistent with the upfront flat price liquidation.

Are we looking at the beginning of a long awaited correction? Soybean oil went into its corrective phase last week and now it looks like meal and soybeans are about to enter theirs. March beans closing below the $13.80 level suggests something closer to $13.40. March meal acts like it wants to go another $10 – $20 lower. As far as March bean oil is concerned I’m not seeing much in the way of support until $40.00 if not $39.00.

Daily & Resistance – 01/20

March Beans : $13.75 – $14.00

March Meal: $445.0 – $458.0

March Bean Oil: $41.00 – $42.50

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