March Soybeans closed 16 ½ cents higher ($13.71 ¼), July 14 ¾ cents higher ($13.48 ½) & Nov 5 ¾ cents higher (11.56 ¼)
March Soybean Meal $7.5 higher ($435.5), July closed $6.9 higher ($427.5) & Dec $4.4 higher ($370.9)
March Soybean Oil closed 16 pts higher ($44.48), July closed 9 pts higher ($43.08) & Dec 8 pts lower ($40.02)
Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 300-750 K T. expected – new crop vs. 350 K -1.500 M T. expected
Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 100-350 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected
Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 8-30 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected
We saw another day where prices get beat up early while the day session brings prices back. It was an interesting day given the reports that China has been washing out Brazilian purchases for March due to poor crush margins. There was a countering story that China crushers may now be looking at US March delivery given the harvest delays in Brazil. Argentina continues to have labor problems; truckers now blocking ports. These problems lent support to the meal market as did meal/oil spreading. Early trading in bean oil was hit hard due to slumping palm oil prices but this market too was able to come back settling at the low end of the recent consolidation.
The interior soybean basis has a mixed look to it. River locations involved for export are mixed as is the processor basis. The Gulf basis for soybeans reads steady to firm. Soybean spreads were steady upfront and after that modest bull spreading with the old crop regaining recent losses vs. the new crop. Offers to sell cash meal have a softening look whether its for domestic of for export. Despite this meal spreads had a minor bullish bias all the way out.
Despite the number of soft starts to daily trading the soybean complex just doesn’t stay down. These are technical indications that our bull market is not over. Interesting to note that new crop weekly export sales are expected to exceed old crop and it’s only early February. Next Tuesday the USDA will update supply-demand and it is expected to show another decline in carryout furthering the idea the need for price rationing. What is price rationing – prices high enough to kill demand. My bottom line – I’m not seeing anything bearish to the recent price action.
Daily Support & Resistance – 02/04
March Beans : $13.58 – $13.83 ($13.94)
March Meal: $427.0 – $442.0
March Bean Oil: $43.90 – $45.20
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