Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

March Soybeans closed 13 ½ cents high ($13.67 ½), July 15 ½ cents higher ($13.51 ¼) & Nov 10 ¾ cents higher (11.74 ¼)

March Soybean Meal closed $6.6 higher ($428.9), July closed $6.6 higher ($424.2) & Dec $6.5 higher ($374.5)

March Soybean Oil closed 6 pts lower ($45.63), July closed 6 pts lower ($44.21) & Dec 29 pts lower ($41.13)

CONAB – Brazilian Soybean Production – 133.8 M T. vs. 133.7 M T. month ago vs. 133.0 M T. USDA

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 804.7 K T. old crop vs. 300-750 K T. expected – 178.5 K T. new crop vs. 50-300 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 263.5 K T. old crop vs. 150-350 K T. expected – 1.2 K T. new crop vs. none expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – <-0.5> K T. old crop vs. 5-30 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected

The soybean market gave something to everyone on Thursday. The night session traded nearly 17 cents lower while the day session traded nearly 26 cents higher. The news of the day ran from Brazil inching their soybean crop 100 K T. higher (now 800 K T. higher vs. the recent USDA estimate) and better than expected weekly soybean export sales. The idea of a short term oversold facilitated some of the buying. Realize we broke March soybeans nearly 67 cents in less than two days.

The interior river locations are showing an easier tone with their basis. A prominent crusher in Illinois increases his basis 5 cents. The nearby Gulf slot shows some easiness at its midday posting. Bear spread motion was working within the old crop while the old crop tries to regain some of its recent losses vs. the new crop. Not much happens with the cash meal offers and not much happens with the meal spreads.

Tomorrow is Friday and we’ve seen a fairly volatile week. We have a 3-day weekend coming at us and it also begins the Chinese New Year. We can still have a volatile session but in the end I think we just spin our wheels. Next week’s price action should be able to tell us whether or not this week’s break was the beginning of the end of the march higher.

Daily Support & Resistance – 02/12

March Beans : $13.55 – $13.86

March Meal: $423.0 – $435.0

March Bean Oil: $45.00 – $46.10

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