Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

March Soybeans closed 12 ¾ cents high ($13.84 ¾), July 15 ¾ cents higher ($13.72 ½) & Nov 12 ¾ cents higher (11.85 ¾)

March Soybean Meal closed $1.2 higher ($428.4), July closed $2.3 higher ($425.5) & Dec $1.1 higher ($373.9)

March Soybean Oil closed 123 pts higher ($47.27), July closed 122 pts higher ($45.82) & Dec 104 pts higher ($42.24)

Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 809.5 K T. vs. 950 K – 1.800 M T. expected

NOPA January Crush – 184.654 M bu. vs. 183.087 M expected (second biggest NOPA crush on record)

A general bullish euphoria throughout much of the commodity sector had soybeans sharply higher in the Monday night session; as much as 22 cents higher. The inability of the meal market to show similar strength had soybean prices giving back 20 cents. The soybean oil market kicking into new contract highs (thank you palm oil) had the soybean market finishing midrange on the day. Harvest in Brazil is happening but maybe not as smooth as some would like. Forecasters are suggesting Argentina is entering a new phase of dryness. Weekly soybean export inspections were disappointing vs. expectations but these were offset by a bullish NOPA January crush number.

The interior Midwestern river basis for soybeans seems to be running steady to easier. This holds true for the Gulf as well. Given what’s happening weather wise in the Midwest it looks like our export program for soybeans may be slowing down.  Soybean spreads within the current crop year showed a definite widening bias. The year-to-year spreads ran mixed as the July/Nov firmed while the spreads within the 21/22 crop year showed a widening bias. As I mentioned earlier the USDA will be having its annual Ag outlook conference later this week and they will give us another look at new crop acreage. Speculation suggests something near 90.0 M acres.

After last week’s S&D report resistance for March beans was set at the $14.05 level. With the meal market dogging it as it did today leads me to believe that resistance level will continue to hold. The strength in soybean oil works to keep the soybean market alive but as I mentioned last week the $48.00 looks to be good resistance for bean oil prices.

Daily Support & Resistance – 02/17

March Beans : $13.75 – $13.95

March Meal: $422.0 – $432.0

March Bean Oil: $46.80 – ???

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