Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

March Soybeans closed 1 cent lower ($13.83 ¾), July ¾ cent higher ($13.73 ¼) & Nov 3 ¼ cent higher (11.89)

March Soybean Meal closed $3.3 higher ($431.7), July $2.4 higher ($427.9) & Dec $1.9 higher ($375.8)

March Soybean Oil closed 50 pts lower ($46.77), July 44 pts lower ($45.38) & Dec 12 pts lower ($42.12).

Yesterday soybean oil was the upside leader of the products and today soybean meal took over that role. The end result of the products’ trade were old crop soybeans in a consolidation mode trading inside of yesterday’s range. The global export market is quiet with China on a weeklong holiday. A good portion of SA was quiet due to Ash Wednesday. The trade still has concerns over the speed of the Brazilian harvest; it’s happening but not as fast as some would like to see. Argentina, according to some weather forecasters, appears to be headed for another period of dryness. Like corn it seemed new crop soybeans had better interest today vs. the old crop. The USDA’s annual outlook conference is tomorrow and the question is whether or not the USDA will tweak/adjust their past November acreage ideas. In November the USDA suggested 89.0 M acres planted to soybeans for the upcoming year. A recent poll of traders has that number closer to 89.4 M acres. Given the tight carryout we have for the old crop the acreage battle should continue right up to planting time.

Interior Midwestern soybean basis levels ran mostly steady today. The Ohio River ran a touch better while river locations elsewhere are maintaining recent easiness. The Gulf shows minor improvement from recent weakness. Soybean spreads ran steady to weaker in the old crop while new crop spreads showed a definite bullish bias. Meal spreads showed a bullish bias all the way out while the flat price correction in soybean oil had those spreads giving back recent strength.

Old crop soybeans have been trading in a well defined 70 cent trading range since mid-late January. There is the thought that our export program has seen its best. The other side of that coin is the S-T-U is so tight how can old crop soybeans sustain a break. Last week’s lows appear to be a jumping off point for old crop beans (13.35 March, 13.20 July). Similar to new crop corn new crop soybeans have a much stronger looking picture vs. the old crop. November soybeans would turn sour with closes below $11.50.

Daily Support & Resistance – 02/18

March Beans : $13.71 – $13.95

March Meal: $425.0 – $437.0

March Bean Oil: $46.10 – $47.20

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.