Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

March Soybeans closed 6 ½ cents higher ($13.83 ¾), July 9 ¼ cents higher ($13.77) & Nov 15 ½ cents higher (12.11 ¾)

March Soybean Meal closed $1.2 lower ($423.1), July $0.5 higher ($420.8) & Dec $5.6 higher ($380.8)

March Soybean Oil closed 35 pts higher ($47.90), July 33 pts higher ($46.43) & Dec 38 pts higher ($43.03)

Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 721.8 K T. vs. 300-950 K T. expected

Old crop soybeans continue in its near month old sideways consolidation affair. New crop soybeans register new contract highs and closes. Old crop soybeans are getting their support from the slow harvest progress in Brazil; now the slowest in the past 10 years. The push into new high ground for the new crop is an effort to try and garner more planted acres to alleviate continued tightness for the next crop year. The USDA’s projected carryout for next year, 145 M bu., is by no means a comfortable level. Old crop meal continues to dog it as Argentina continues to ramp up their rate of crush following all of their recent labor problems. Soybean oil continues to go it alone on the upside but I couldn’t help but notice the $48.00 level (March) worked as a bit of a stumbling block.

Not much happens with the interior Midwestern soybean basis. The nearby Gulf slot edges higher while the forward time slots appear a bit easier. Soybean spreads were under the gun all the way out to January 2022. Deliveries against the March contracts start on Friday. Given that the March/May soybean spread has lost 8 cents in the past two weeks one might expect to see some soybean deliveries as well as some meal deliveries. It will be a true test of just how tight soybeans really are vs. normal liquidation ahead of 1st notice day. Bean oil deliveries, if any, should be quite light.

Old crop soybeans and old crop soybean meal are sideways markets. Fading short term inter-day extremes is the only way I know how to trade markets like this. New crop is another story. Until the run of trying to buy acres is over breaks will be well supported. With nearby bean oil at the $48.00 level I’d be a bit skeptical of any new purchases at this time.

Daily Support & Resistance – 02/23

May Beans : $13.74 – $13.98

May Meal: $418.0 – $428.0

May Bean Oil: $46.60 – $47.75

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.