Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

March Soybeans closed 22 ¼ cents higher ($14.06), July 17 ½ cents higher ($13.94 ½) & Nov 10 ¼ cents higher (12.22)

March Soybean Meal closed $3.4 higher ($426.5), July $1.9 higher ($422.7) & Dec $1.2 higher ($382.0)

March Soybean Oil closed 136 pts higher ($49.26), July 107 pts higher 57($47.50) & Dec 54 pts higher ($43.03)

Old crop soybeans surge to their best levels not seen since Jan 15th. At one point during the day May soybeans were up nearly 41 cents. Delayed harvest out of Brazil as well as dryness fears for their later maturing soybeans (Argentina is seeing a similar forecast) was deemed as the primary rationale for the rally. I also have to think we saw a fair amount of technical buying when we traded above last week’s highs as well as the spike we saw on February 9th. New crop soybeans score another round of new contract highs and closes as the market works to ensure enough acres to try and prevent another year of extreme tightness. Soybean oil continues to race higher buoyed by strength in the entire veg oil sector. Nearby soybean oil is at levels not seen since 2013. My monthly charts for canola go back to 1992; we’ve not seen prices this high in that entire time frame. For what it’s worth March canola finished limit up. Soybean meal tried to go along with the strength in beans and bean oil but were unable to break out of its month old $20.0 trading range.

Soybean spreads have been a bit of corrective mode for the past few weeks. Today’s spread action is suggesting that corrective mode may be coming to an end. The midday posting at the Gulf shows the basis continuing to edge higher. I’m told its more about logistics and slow movement. The processor has the best basis out there despite a less than exuberant crush margin.

Despite old crop soybeans finishing 19-20 cents off of their day’s highs price charts have renewed their constructive look. Old crop soybeans could really zoom higher if the meal market could break out of its month old $20.0 trading range. Soybean oil can only do so much as it’s only 11-12 lbs of the 60 lb. bushel. I do think if we can get May meal to close above today’s highs things could really get exciting.

Daily Support & Resistance – 02/24

May Beans : $13.95 – $14.30

May Meal: $422.0 – $434.0 (?)

May Bean Oil: $47.50 – ???

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