March Soybeans closed 17 ¾ cents higher ($14.23 ¾), July 17 ½ cents higher ($14.12 & Nov 16 ¼ cents higher (12.38 ¼)
March Soybean Meal closed $1.8 higher ($428.3), July $1.1 higher ($423.8) & Dec $2.5 higher ($384.5)
March Soybean Oil closed 188 pts higher ($51.14), July 160 pts higher ($49.10) & Dec 96 pts higher ($44.53)
Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 200-800 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-500 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 75-450 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected
Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 5-30 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected
Where do you think soybeans would be trading if the meal market weren’t such a dog? I understand the processor will be crushing to take advantage of the sky-high bean oil prices but it also means he is creating meal stocks. As soybean oil moves higher inter-market spreaders sell soybean meal. If soybean oil starts to correct it should give the meal market some left-handed support. The bottom line remains the soybean market needs to stay firm in an effort to stifle demand in an effort to keep the old crop S-T-U (currently 2.6 %) from getting any tighter. So – how much higher can soybean oil go? My idea that $48.00 was high enough is evidently wrong. For what it is worth the 14-day RSI for May soybean oil sits at 80. Did anyone notice the canola market finishing limit down? New crop soybeans continue to move higher in an effort to buy additional acres. The S&D scenario the USDA laid out for us last Friday suggests the new crop S-T-U at 3.2%. There’s not much room there either.
In the Midwestern cash soybean market the processor continues to stand in while river locations run steady to easier. The Gulf stays firm. Soybean spreads within the old crop run fractionally mixed while old crop continues to rebound vs. the new crop.
Old crop soybeans remain in line to challenge the mid-January contract highs. Tomorrow’s weekly export sales report is not expected to show much new demand. Is an 80 RSI in soybean oil high enough? Soybean meal should be able to hold the $420 level but it remains to be seen what’s out there to get this market to break out on the upside. I need to see closes above the $440.0 level. The next upside target for November soybeans is something near the $12.80 level.
Daily Support & Resistance – 02/25
May Beans : $14.10 – $14.35 (?)
May Meal: $422.0 – $434.0
May Bean Oil: $48.65 – ???
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