March Soybeans closed 4 cents higher ($14.15 ½), July 5 ½ cents higher ($14.01 ½) & Nov 5 cents higher (12.43 ¾)
March Soybean Meal closed $8.1 lower ($402.0), July $1.4 lower ($404.0) & Dec $0.1 higher ($373.7)
March Soybean Oil closed 110 pts higher ($56.46), July 87 pts higher ($53.02) & Dec 70 pts higher ($48.58)
Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 350.6 K T. old crop vs. 200-350 K T. expected – 213.2 K T. new crop vs. 50-300 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 261.6 K T. old crop vs. 100-250 K T. expected – 18.3 K T. new crop vs. none expected
Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – 5.0 K T. old crop vs. 5-20 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected
CONAB – Brazilian Soybean Production – 135.131 M T. vs. 133.817 (February) vs. 134.0 M T. (USDA)
Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) -suggests Argentine Soybean production 44.0 M T. vs. 46.0 M T. previous vs. USDA 47.50 M T.
Soybean oil continues to zoom higher, soybean meal continues to sag and soybeans get caught in the middle. Based on expectations soybean export sales were solid. Given the current S-T-U these sales are almost too much. Soybean meal sales were excellent vs. expectations. Soybean meal prices in China continue to take it on the chin from ideas the re-emerging ASF may be expanding. The Brazilian production estimate created some chatter; quantity vs. quality. Late in the day the continued downgrading of the Argentine crop kept the soybean market alive. Soybean oil continues to surge higher taking its cue from the palm market as well as the idea of better demand from the bio-diesel sector.
The interior Midwestern soybean basis is like night and day between the processor and the river. River locations show softer basis levels while the processor continues to stand in. the midday reading for the Gulf basis appears steady vs. yesterday while maintaining recent softening. Soybean spreads within the current crop year showed a widening bias while the old crop ran mixed vs. the new crop. The interior soybean meal basis runs steady with few if any changes being seen. The export market for meal continues to soften. Couldn’t help but notice S. Korea buying some soybean meal from China. Meal spreads ran soft all the way out to the new crop.
May soybeans find support at the even dollar mark; $14.00. If we are to see further correction $13.90 to $13.80 will be the next level of support. Near term resistance has been set up from $14.30 to $14.40. I can’t imagine November soybean during much ahead of the planting intentions report at the end of the month – Just a guess here; $12.10 to $12.60. I don’t see the $400.0 mark in May soybean meal being anything more than psychological support. The best looking technical support comes in closer the $380.0 level. A few days ago I talked bout the $57.75 level being resistance for nearby soybean oil. We’re not from that level given today’s trade. March bean oil goes of the Board tomorrow, it’s currently carrying a 180 pt. premium to the May. Will May pick up where the March leaves off?
Daily Support & Resistance – 03/12
May Beans : $13.90 – $14.30
May Meal: $400.0 (?) – $412.5
May Bean Oil: $53.50 – ???
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