May Soybeans closed 25 ½ cents lower ($13.92 ¼), July 25 ½ cents lower ($13.80 ½) & Nov 29 ¼ cents lower (12.06 ¼)
May Soybean Meal closed $6.7 lower ($398.2), July $5.9 lower ($398.3) & Dec $4.7 lower ($368.7)
May Soybean Oil closed 108 pts lower ($53.52), July 152 pts lower ($51.33) & Dec 178 pts lower ($46.29)
Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 202.4 K T. old crop vs. 0-400 K T. expected – no new crop vs. 100-400 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 234.6 K T. old crop vs. 100-300 K T. expected – <-0.3 K T.> new crop vs. none expected
Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – 19.1 K T. old crop vs. 0-30 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected
Soybean oil moves into a full fledged correction. Soybean meal continues to grind lower. The soybean export market appears to be dying on the vine. Yes, we still have soybeans to ship but new business remains lacking as Brazil ramps up its harvest. The recent rains in Argentina have stopped the recent deterioration but many will argue that they came too little too late. Today’s market action will disagree with that idea. Updated forecasts for Argentina suggest the recent rains will be it for a while. China’s soybean buying has definitely slowed from all sources as their crush margins are such that it is a losing venture. China says their soybean oil stocks sink to 3-year lows because crush margins are so bad.
Interior cash soybean markets still show the processor standing in for ownership while the exporter seems to be in no rush for ownership. The Gulf basis stays soft looking. Soybean spreads ran steady upfront. Old crop continues to gain out to November. November forward spreads showed a widening bias. Meal spreads continue soften which appears to be in line with a slack looking cash market. Soybean oil spreads were firm out to Sept and then started to lose ground.
The next level of support for May soybeans is the $13.80-$13.75 level. After that not much until $13.50. May soybean meal looks like it’s headed to the $380.0 level. The support it gets on the liquidation of the long bean oil short meal spreads is not enough to keep this market alive. $52.00 is the next support level for May soybean oil. I’m hesitant to say the party is over for the soybean complex as we remain extremely tight overall. Our new export potential has faded. Now we need to shut down the crush. For now I’ll call the selling technical in nature just because our upside has become a struggle. Longer term I doubt we’re going to put back bushels to the supply unless the Stocks report at the end of the month suggest we understated last season’s harvest. Don’t be surprised to see some bouncing tomorrow especially if the market gets beat up tonight.
Daily Support & Resistance – 03/19
May Beans : $13.80 – $14.10
May Meal: $394.0 – $406.0
May Bean Oil: $52.00 – $54.30
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