Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

May Soybeans closed 5 ¾ cents higher ($14.23 ¼), July 7 ¼ cents higher ($14.11 ¼) & Nov 7 ½ cents higher (12.23 ½)

May Soybean Meal closed $2.2 higher ($398.8), July $2.3 higher ($399.5) & Dec $2.9 higher ($371.5)

May Soybean Oil closed 65 pts higher ($57.02), July 7 pts higher ($53.82) & Dec 9 pts lower ($47.23)

Is an end-user caught short bought May soybean oil? The strength in May soybean oil sticks out like a sore thumb when compared to the July contract. I’m not saying the bean oil market is going away as the demand for bio-diesel seems pretty stout (especially when palm oil bio-diesel is not allowed in certain countries). Soybean meal continues to spin its wheels at its recent lower end as it seems we’ve yet been able to curtail the crush. I’m told there are some crushers that are going to take some downtime in the near term. Hopefully that will be able to keep this market from cascading lower vs. what we’ve recently seen. With all of the aforementioned said the net effect on the old crop soybean market is that it keeps it alive.

The make-up of the Midwestern soybean basis has not changed; processors are standing in for ownership while exporters seem to be in hurry to own soybeans. The Gulf basis for soybeans stays slack looking. Soybean spreads ran mixed; May loses to July and August while August gains out to January. The domestic meal basis firms where downtime is expected while quiet elsewhere. The export market for meal remains quiet. Meal spreads were soft out to August.

Old crop soybeans – should stay relatively firm until we see the Quarterly Stocks report next Wednesday; basically the same range we’ve been in for the last two weeks.

New crop soybeans – the fear of not enough acreage intentions reported next Wednesday should work to keep November soybeans between $12.00 and $12.50.

Daily Support & Resistance – 03/24

May Beans : $14.05 – $14.40

May Meal: $392.0 – $404.0  

May Bean Oil: $55.70 – $58.25 (?)

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