Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

May Soybeans closed 7 ½ cents lower ($13.93), July 6 cents lower ($13.85 ¼) & Nov 2 ¾ cents lower (12.04 ½)

May Soybean Meal closed $5.9 lower ($398.1), July $5.4 lower ($400.3) & Dec $3.3 lower ($370.7)

May Soybean Oil closed 48 pts higher ($52.96), July 87 pts higher ($50.75) & Dec 53 pts higher ($45.46)

Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 425.3 K T. vs. 150-575 K T. expected

Soybeans struggle to gain some traction. Soybean oil was the leader of the complex while soybean meal went back to getting the short end of the short end of the stick. It is being reported that Brazilian harvest hit 71% completed late last week. Weather forecasts remain dry so it has to be assumed that the balance of harvest will be wrapped up in relatively short order. Weekly export inspections were okay based on expectations. Going forward, however, inspections along with sales are expected to stay slow now that Brazil is fully online. The Quarterly Stocks report, (1.534 B Bu. is expected), will dictate whether of not Old crop soybeans will be able to sustain the $14.00 level. The acreage report (89.996 M acres expected) will help decide if the soybean market is going to stay tight similar to what we have seen this current season.

The soybean processor continues to stand in for soybean ownership. River locations act like they don’t need/want any soybeans. The Gulf basis continues to show a softening look. Soybean spreads ran soft all the way through the new crop. The meal basis continues to be no big deal suggesting the soybean grind keeps this market well supplied. Meal spreads ran the same routs as the soybean spreads; a bearish bias all the through the new crop.

$13.80 should hold May soybeans ahead of Wednesday’s Stocks report. Given the inconsistency of the USDA when it comes to this report its almost anyone’s guess what they will report. $11.90 should hold November soybeans ahead of Wednesday’s acreage report. The price action in soybean meal continues to uninspiring. I see a smattering of support against the $390 level; better down towards $380. So, has soybean oil made a major top? The Quarterly Stocks report will have something to say about that whether or not we have enough soybeans to satisfy this market.

Daily Support & Resistance – 03/30

May Beans : $13.80 – $14.10

May Meal: $394.0 – $405.0  

May Bean Oil: $52.00 ($51.00) – $54.30

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