Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

May Soybeans closed 70 cents higher ($14.36 ¾), July 70 cents higher ($14.27 ¾) & Nov 70 cents higher (11.86 ¼)

May Soybean Meal closed $25.0 higher ($423.2), July $24.7 higher ($424.8) & Dec $25.0 higher ($397.5)

May Soybean Oil closed 246 pts higher ($52.92), July 245 pts higher ($50.76) & Dec 241 pts higher ($46.04)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 100-450 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-200 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 100-250 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-50 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 5-25 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

USDA Quarterly Soybean Stocks – 1.564 B bu. vs. 1.534 expected vs. 2.255 year ago

USDA Soybean Prospective Plantings – 87.600 M acres vs. 89.996 expected vs. 83.084 year ago

Even More Wow!!! Despite the quarterly stocks figure coming in 30 M bu. higher than expected the actual number still acted as a reminder old crop soybeans will remain tight for the balance of the marketing year. The acreage suggestion was the real shocker. If one uses the demand numbers the USDA gave us their outlook meeting in February and applies their yield and the current carryout is suggests next season we will have the lowest carryout in history. This past season we’ve talked about price rationing. If we don’t increase this coming season’s acres the new phrase will become price killing. Prices should be higher tomorrow with the new crop leading the way. After the initial shock set in old crop/new crop soybean spreads started slipping south while the spreads within the new crop were actually firming. It would not surprise me to see the July’21/Nov’21 soybean spread ease by 5 cents on the opening while the Nov’21/July’22 spread could gain nearly 10 cents. That’s just how bullish new crop soybean are. Today’s limit up move in soybeans mandates that the daily price limit moves to $1.05 for tomorrow.

As in corn soybean price charts after today’s data and price action a new leg higher is being advertised. Old crop soybeans should lag the strength in new crop but price rationing is still needed. New crop will embark on a mission to try and find more acres. I’m not sure the product markets will be able to match the strength the soybean market shows. I may be wrong but this just might be the end of the strong crush market.

Daily Support & Resistance – 04/01

July Beans : $14.15 – ???

July Meal: $418.0 – ???  

July Bean Oil: $49.60 – $52.45

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