Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

May Soybeans closed 10 cents lower ($14.08 ¾), July 8 ¼ cents lower ($14.03) & Nov ½ cent lower (11.70 ¾)

May Soybean Meal closed $2.7 higher ($409.1), July $2.9 higher ($411.4) & Dec $2.8 higher ($393.0)

May Soybean Oil closed 107 pts lower ($52.85), July 100 pts lower ($51.00) & Dec 53 pts lower ($47.12)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 100-400 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-200 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 100-250 K T. expected – new crop vs. 5-50 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 0-30 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

If one looks at the basis levels down at the Gulf for soybeans it might make one think that the US soybean export program in done. Brazil had a record export shipment program in March and speculation suggests they will have another one in April. I think what’s happening at the Gulf is mostly responsible for today’s price action in the old crop soybean market. Soybean oil’s volatility is tough to stay on top of as it gave back everything it gained yesterday. Soybean meal got some left-handed support from the liquidation of inter-market spreads involving short meal. Processors continue to stand in for soybean ownership but I don’t see them reaching for origination. They really don’t have to since they don’t have any competition from the exporter. I don’t think the old crop soybean is going to collapse on us but the bull needs to be fed every day. On Friday the USDA should act as a reminder of the tightness in the old crop soybean market.

New crop soybeans, like new cop corn, is not going to go away as it continues to fight for acreage origination. For what it is worth the US attaché to Brazil is suggesting their soybean crop for next year will approach 141.0 M T. It makes me think their plan to halt deforestation is not working.

Daily Support & Resistance – 04/08

July Beans : $13.85 – $14.14

July Meal: $406.0 – $416.0  

July Bean Oil: $49.60 – $51.50

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