Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

May Soybeans closed 7 ½ cents higher ($13.89 ½), July 5 ¾ cents higher ($13.84 ¾) & Nov 1 cent higher (12.51 ¼)

May Soybean Meal closed $6.9 lower ($395.0), July $6.1 lower ($400.0) & Dec $4.3 lower ($387.7)

May Soybean Oil closed 156 pts higher ($53.03), July 157 pts higher ($51.15) & Dec 92 pts higher ($46.68)

Soybean oil retraces all of Monday’s losses and then some; thank you very much to the rebound in the palm market. Soybean meal takes it on the chin from inter-market spreading, buying bean oil selling meal. The meal market is telling us the crush has yet to slow down enough to stimulate any buying interest as domestic supplies remain more than ample. Soybean get caught in the middle of all this. Look at it this way; July soybean oil gained $942.00, July soybean meal lost $610.00. July soybeans gained $287.50. As I’ve said in the past strength in soybean oil will work to keep the soybean market alive but as long as the meal market dogs it soybeans won’t do much better than staying alive.

The interior cash soybean market remains a tale of two worlds. The interior exporter has a slack looking basis while the processor has a stout looking basis. Bull spreads in soybeans saw some minor improvement vs. their recent sell off. Bull spreads continue to work in soybean oil while soybean meal spreads have lost just over $5.00 in the past week. Going forward I’m thinking the nearby bull spread in both soybeans and soybean meal should improve going into May deliveries while the nearby meal spread may continue to languish at least until it becomes unprofitable to crush soybeans.

Soybean oil refuses to give up the ship while soybean meal acts like it is going to give up the ship. As I mentioned before soybeans get caught in the middle of all this and they continue to manage to stay alive. Until the meal market can get off of its can soybean will do well for themselves just to stay alive within the broad trading range they have been in since early March. Th price action in new crop soybeans does not resemble a top but just some downflagging. Next week the USDA will report on soybean planting progress. I’m hearing of a fair amount of soybeans being planted at this early date as the premium from August to September is rather noticeable; currently 66 cents.

Daily Support & Resistance – 04/14

July Beans : $13.70 – $13.95

July Meal: $395.0 – $405.0  

July Bean Oil: $50.00 – $52.25

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