May Soybeans closed 15 ¼ cents lower ($15.42 ½), July 11 ½ cents lower ($15.02 ¼) & Nov 9 ¼ cents lower (13.18 ¾)
May Soybean Meal closed $1.3 higher ($422.6), July $1.2 higher ($423.0) & Dec $0.3 higher ($402.0)
May Soybean Oil closed 296 pts lower ($65.99), July 127 pts lower ($59.89) & Dec 62 pts lower ($50.31)
Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 292.5 K T. old crop vs. -100+200 K T. expected – 439.0 K T. new crop vs. 200-500 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 163.5 K T. old crop vs. 50-250 K T. expected – 96.9 K T. new crop vs. 0-25 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – 3.6 K T. old crop vs. -10+50 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected
May soybean oil finally sees a day of sustained correction in the form of a 500 pt. range. I’ll call it month end profitaking ahead of tomorrow’s 1st notice day. I can’t imagine we’ll see any soybean oil deliveries. Despite the ongoing tightness in the soybean market they broke with the soybean oil market. I doubt we’ll see any soybean deliveries. Soybean meal gets some minor left-handed support from the break in bean oil. I thought weekly export sales were good for soybeans considering the ongoing tightness that’s being evidenced in the cash market. After today’s export sales report we are about 900 K T. shy of meeting the USDA’s latest sales projection. I have to think today’s minor attempt at correcting the bull spreads will not last for very long. Going forward I think bull spreads will work from both vantage points; tight old crop and a decent planting rate for the new crop. As far as I’m concerned the worst case scenario for the soybean market is some volatile consolidation in both the old crop and new crop with the advantage going to the old crop. Soybean oil has a fair amount of room to correct but if we are going to try to continue slowing the rate of crush it will be supportive to the bean oil and will eventually rally the soybean meal.
Daily Support & Resistance – 04/30
July Beans : $14.85 – 15.25
July Meal: $415.0 – $432.0
July Bean Oil: $58.00 – $61.50
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