July Soybeans closed 36 cents lower ($15.38 ¼), August 35 ¾ cents lower ($14.85 ½) & Nov 30 ¼ cents lower ($13.69 ¼)
July Soybean Meal closed $7.6 lower ($403.2), August $7.5 lower ($400.9) & Dec $7.2 lower ($394.0)
July Soybean Oil closed 220 pts lower ($68.47), August 207 pts lower ($62.81) & Dec 189 pts lower ($57.69)
USDA announces Soybean Export Sales – 142.5 K T. new crop sold to Mexico
Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. -200 +200 K T. expected – new crop vs. 100-400 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 50-300 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-50 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. -10 +25 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected
The soybean complex falls victim to the grand scale commodity liquidation. At one point losses in July soybeans approached 52 cents and 45 cents in November. Soybean oil cracked lower taking its cue from the sharply lower energy sector; at one point July soybean oil was down nearly 340 pts. We did see some minor retracement in these two markets but still finishing with notable losses on the day. Not to be left out of the fray soybean meal too was hit hard but it never really saw any attempts at bouncing during the day. The other day one of the stories had China washing out previously made soybean oil sales – now I’m hearing of some similar sales washing involving soybeans. Continued poor crush margins in China is the rationale behind this.
The interior processor basis continues to decline. The interior river basis doesn’t do much. Yesterday the Gulf basis for soybeans saw undefined offers; today I’m seeing undefined bids. Spreads throughout the complex are on the defensive suggesting the fundamental bull party may be on its last legs for the old crop.
It’s needless to say that after today’s performance the technical look at the complex suggests it is on very shaky ground. We may get some short term bouncing from an inter-day oversold scenario but I get the impression we may see additional liquidation in soybeans and soybean oil. The July soybean chart is now suggesting big time resistance beginning at the $15.80 level. $68.00 is showing the same for July soybean oil. I would like to think $400.0 holds July meal at least the first time it tests it but meal was the last to rally and the first to give it back. That says meal continues without a story for support.
Daily Support & Resistance – 05/20
July Soybeans: $15.30 – $15.60
July Soybean Meal: $400.0 – $410.0
July Soy Oil: $65.75 – $67.85
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