July Soybeans closed 3 ½ cents lower ($15.22 ¾), August 1 ¼ cents lower ($14.71) & Nov 1 ¾ cents higher ($13.62 ¼)
July Soybean Meal closed $1.3 higher ($400.2), August $1.3 higher ($399.3) & Dec $0.9 higher ($394.5)
July Soybean Oil closed 36 pts lower ($65.13), August 23 pts lower ($61.29) & Dec 35 pts higher ($57.58)
Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 193.9 K T. vs. 150-250 K T. expected
Similar price action in soybeans vs. what was seen in corn. Lower prices Sunday night and early Monday morning followed by buying. The selling stemmed from the new crop getting planted in a timely manner. The buying was the greatest in the new crop stemming from the idea we are not getting enough additional acres to offset the tight scenario the USDA laid out in the May S&D report. New crop manages slight gains vs. the old crop due to not only the tight scenario laid out for the new crop but also the idea we may see a slightly higher old crop carryout on the next S&D report from a reduced rate of crush. Soybean oil continues to trade all over the map but the bear spreading against the old crop suggests we are still in a liquidation phase. Soybean meal challenges the March lows and manages to hold stemming from improving demand based on the recent low prices as well as the slowdown in the crush.
Interior basis levels for old crop soybeans continues to show easing. Most of this is from the processor. The gulf basis appears to be steady to firm despite interior river locations being no big deal. As I mentioned earlier bear spreading was noted in the soybeans mostly old crop vs. the new crop. The interior meal basis continues to show a soft look while the export market is mostly steady. Meal spreads had a very slight bullish bias.
Trade ideas have the rate of soybeans planted at 80%. Ideas ranged from 76% to 85%. The USDA reports that 75% of the soybean crop has been planted vs. the 5-year norm at 54%. The rate of emergence is at 41% vs. the 5-year norm of 25%.
Near term technical looking support for July soybeans comes in at the $15.00 level. Today we traded down to $15.06 and bounced about 19 cents. That would suggest the current rate of descent is slowing and it opens the door to some further upside retracement if not consolidation in general. Similar price action is being seen in the new crop soybeans. Overall I see room for the entire soybean complex to do some consolidating if not featuring some upside retracement. As I mentioned in my corn comment I would like to see some of the recently established resistance tested but I’m not sure what would get us there given what I believe to be a good start to our growing season.
Daily Support & Resistance – 05/25
July Soybeans: $15.10 – $15.40
July Soybean Meal: $395.0 – $407.0
July Soy Oil: $64.00 – $67.00
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.