Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

July Soybeans closed 33 ½ cents higher ($15.37), August 34 ¼ cents higher ($14.87 ¼) & Nov 31 ¼ cents higher ($13.78 ¼)

July Soybean Meal closed $6.5 higher ($390.3), August $7.2 higher ($391.8) & Dec $7.4 higher ($391.7)

July Soybean Oil closed 113 pts higher ($66.81), August 133 pts higher ($63.23) & Dec 139 pts higher ($59.38)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 55.9 K T. old crop vs. -200 +200 K T. expected – 248.3 K T. new crop vs. 225-600 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 197.4 K T. old crop vs. 100-300 K T. expected – 76.9 K T. new crop vs. 0-75 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – 1.7 K T. old crop vs. -10 +25 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected

The soy complex follows the corn market’s influence higher. Weekly export sales were no big deal in my opinion. A positive number for old crop soybeans is probably a plus. New crop soybean sales were uninspiring as were meal and bean oil sales. As of this writing weather forecasts are such that we should have much problem getting the remaining balance of the intended soybean crop planted in a time fashion. With the exception of the Dakotas problem areas seem minor. The big question for new crop soybeans going forward is are we getting any additional acres over and above what the USDA outlined on March 31st (87.6 M).

The interior processor soybean basis is not showing any new changes while maintaining a defensive look. River basis remains nothing to write home about. The Gulf basis for soybeans is fully steady and has seen few if any changes going back the last 5 days. July beans lose to August while August gains on its forward contracts. It looks like we are seeing some minor index fund rolling. Interior cash soybean meal basis remains slow to slack looking. The gulf basis for meal has moved in such a long time. Meal spreads are soft all the way out to December of 2022.

I’m viewing the last day and a half rally as mostly technical in nature. Yes, new crop soybean need some risk premium especially if we don’t see an increase in acres. So far we’re fortunate we don’t have any major weather worries yet. Both the meal and soybean markets have room to retrace highs before running into decent looking resistance. The best looking resistance for July soybeans is up towards the $15.75 level and $14.20-$14.25 for November. July meal can rally back to the $415.0 level before encountering any significant looking resistance. July soybean oil shows resistance every 100 pts higher starting $68.00 level.

Daily Support & Resistance – 05/28

July Soybeans: $15.20 – $15.60

July Soybean Meal: $384.0 – $400.0

July Soy Oil: $65.00 – $68.00

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.