Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

July Soybeans closed 14 cents higher ($15.62 ½), August 15 ½ cents higher ($15.16 ¼) & Nov 16 ¾ cents higher ($14.13 ¾)

July Soybean Meal closed $4.7 lower ($394.0), August $4.2 lower ($395.3) & Dec $3.5 lower ($393.2)

July Soybean Oil closed 299 pts higher ($70.38), August 294 pts higher ($66.69) & Dec 229 pts higher ($62.65)

Soybean Oil Rules!! Sharply higher palm oil prices, the lower than expected crush data and higher energy prices all worked together to force soybean oil into new contract highs for both old crop and new crop. The sharp strength in soybean oil more than offset the lagging soybean meal prices and that allowed soybean prices to maintain decent gains all day long. Weather concerns (developing dryness) for the western, northwestern Midwest will remain a supporting issue.

The interior Midwestern soybean basis still shows a slack look. The pace of crush has been slowing. The export demand is no big deal. We’re seeing some minor bear spreading as the smaller passive index funds are rolling out of their July contracts.

Nothing bearish about the soybean oil market’s new contract highs, new contract high closes. Soybean meal will continue to dog it but I am thinking last week’s lows will be the worst we see. Today’s inside day in the soybean market is not bearish but rather the pause that refreshes. I fully anticipate old crop soybean to challenge the highs we saw on Tuesday if not take them out. Weather concerns, dryness in the western Midwest, should continue to support the new crop.

Daily Support & Resistance – 06/03

July Beans: $15.50 – $15.80 ($15.95)

Nov Beans: $14.00 – $14.36

July Meal: $389.0 – $402.0

July Soy Oil: $69.50 – $72.32 (?)

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.