Soybeans Commentary

storck

Soybeans – Just My Opinion

May Soybeans closed unchanged ($8.98 ¾), July unchanged ($9.11 ¾) & Nov ½ cent lower ($9.31 ¾)       

May Soybean Meal closed $0.1 lower ($309.1), July $0.1 lower ($312.8) & Dec $0.3 lower ($320.3)

May Soybean Oil closed 16 pts higher ($29.04), July 15 pts higher ($29.35) & Dec 10 pts higher ($30.12)

Highlights of USDA Soybean Supply-Demand Report – US – lowered carryout 5 million bu. by lowering imports 3 million bu. and increasing seed usage 2 million bu. – World – increased carryout 190 K T., increased production 500 K T.

The USDA leaves most demand data unchanged for old crop soybeans. The end result is here we sit. Is the USDA holding out hope for a trade deal with China? Will they wait until the marketing year is over to make changes to what currently appears as an overstated export projection? Between now and the end of August we need to ship nearly 21.0 M T. of soybeans. We have 21 weeks left in the marketing year. 1.0 M T. a week doesn’t sound like a lot but we are entering the time frame where SA takes over marketing to the World with their new crop. I’m told the US is not competitive now nor is the US competitive going forward.

The interior soybean basis is mostly steady; one interior river location reading 4 cents better. The Gulf appears to be trying to stabilize after its recent slide. Soybean spreads ran mixed on the day; steady upfront, fractionally easier vs. August and Sept. Old crop gains fractionally on the new crop. Offers to sell cash soybean meal are fully steady both in the interior and for export. Meal spreads ran steady to fractionally better. Overall both soybean and soybean meal spreads remain rather wide.

The technical scenario for soybeans has not changed, a very short term sideways within an interim down channel. The longer term look is sideways. Soybean meal is a broad sideways with a developing short term triangulation (since the 2nd week of March higher lows and lower highs). Soybean oil is in a broad 350 pt range while the shorter term look is trying to read higher.    

Daily Support & Resistance for 04/10

July Soybeans: $9.06 – $9.19

July Soybean Meal: $310.0 – 316.5

July Soybean Oil: $29.00 – $29.80

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.