Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

July Soybeans closed 13 ¼ cents lower ($15.49 ¼), August 12 cents lower ($15.04 ¼) & Nov 10 ¼ cents lower ($14.03 ½)

July Soybean Meal closed $2.4 lower ($391.6), August $2.4 lower ($392.9) & Dec $2.5 lower ($390.7)

July Soybean Oil closed 153 pts lower ($68.85), August 131 pts lower ($65.38) & Dec 70 pts lower ($61.95)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. -100 +200 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-400 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 100-300 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-75 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. -10 +25 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

Soybean oil balks at the 72.32 weekly chart high made during the second week of May and turns tail. An article out of Argentina talks about a near if not historical low basis level for export out of that country. Then again the rally in the US soybean oil market has not been about export but rather for US domestic industrial demand. The about face in the soybean oil market weighs on the soybean market. Soybean meal continues to dog it from slack demand. In addition to the gyrations in the soybean oil market new crop soybeans have to contend with the weather and its forecasts. Will moisture come next week when the big heat from this weekend is expected to ease?

Interior cash soybean markets (basis) don’t do much. We have a slow export program and what sems to be a hesitant crush program. Spreads continue to soften from the nearby July all the way out to the 2022 crop year.

July soybeans continue to honor the technical resistance that has been sitting above the $15.75 level. Last Friday’s to Tuesday’s opening gap fills at the $15.32 level. November beans’ direction will be decided by the forecasts for the next couple of weeks. I’ve got technical support down at the $13.85 level and then again at $13.75. We’re going to need a longer lasting weather scare to get beyond the $14.40-$14.60 price level. Soybean meal will continue to dog it without that weather scare. What about soybean oil after today’s suggested reversal? The rally in soybean oil has not been about weather but rather demand. There is room to retrace to the downside but I’m not sure the demand for bean oil is going away anytime soon.

Daily Support & Resistance – 06/04

July Beans: $15.33 – $15.70

Nov Beans: $13.85 – $14.28

July Meal: $386.0 – $396.0

July Soy Oil: $67.50 – $71.00

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