Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

July Soybeans closed 17 ½ cents lower ($15.62 ½), August 16 ½ cents lower ($15.23) & Nov 8 ¾ cents lower ($14.48 ¼)

July Soybean Meal closed $3.4 lower ($386.4), August $3.3 lower ($388.4) & Dec $1.3 lower ($393.8)

July Soybean Oil closed 49 pts lower ($71.59), August 33 pts lower ($68.97) & Dec 59 pts lower ($66.02)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. -100 +200 K T. expected – new crop vs. 100-400 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 100-300 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-50 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. -10 +16 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

The soybean complex gets hit hard Tuesday night, early Wednesday. Part the rationale behind the break were the scattered rains that moved across the Dakotas. Let’s emphasize “scattered” as temps stay warm and the wind continues to howl diminishing the potential positive effects on the soybean crop in those areas. Prices tried to come back during the day session but the lack of demand and a continued sloppy cash market suggested otherwise keeping prices throughout the complex lower on the day.

The ongoing index fund roll keeps July soybeans under pressure. Couple that with the slack demand for old crop soybeans suggests the July longs are now moving to the November contract. The interior meal basis is nothing short of horrendous. Soybean oil remain caught up between firm domestic prices and an easing global basis. Excuse my not knowing but has the US ever imported soybean oil?

Not much is expected from the USDA supply-demand report tomorrow. Just a reminder of a tight looking new crop for so early in the season. Weather fears should keep the November contract from falling apart.

Daily Support & Resistance – 06/10

Nov Beans: $14.38 – $14.70

Dec Meal: $388.0 – $405.0

Dec Soy Oil: $64.30 – ???

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