Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

July Soybeans closed 18 ½ cents lower ($15.44), August 13 cents lower ($15.10) & Nov 11 ¼ cents higher ($14.59 ½)

July Soybean Meal closed $4.8 lower ($381.6), August $4.4 lower ($384.0) & Dec $0.2 lower ($393.6)

July Soybean Oil closed 113 pts lower ($70.46), August 29 pts lower ($68.68) & Dec 65 pts higher ($66.67)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 15.6 K T. vs. -100 +200 K T. expected – 105.0 K T. new crop vs. 100-400 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 136.3 K T. old crop vs. 100-300 K T. expected – 3.9 K T. new crop vs. 0-50 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – 3.1 K T. old crop vs. -10 +16 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected

CONAB – Brazilian Soybean Production – 135.8 M T. vs. 135.4 M T. month ago

USDA Supply-Demand Highlights – US – cut old crop crush by 15 M bu. increased carryout by a like amount – increased new crop carryin by 15 M bu. due to the higher old crop carryout left all new crop demand data unchanged – World – increased old crop carryout by 1.5 M T., increased new crop carryout by like amount

Soybeans were not left out of the volatility fray following the release of the USDA supply Demand data. Immediately following the report July soybeans traded 7 cents higher, fell to 25 cents lower and retraced back to 4 cents lower. The balance of the session was spent drifting back down to the interim lows seen shortly after the report. The November contract saw similar gyrations but at higher levels. November soybeans initially traded 12 cents higher after the report then fell to 10 cents lower and retraced back to 13 cents higher on the day. The balance of its session was spent trading between 3 and 13 cents higher. The product markets saw similar price action; old crop eventually finishing down towards the lows of the day and the new crop holding its own. Soybean meal continues to be the weak sister in the new crop products.

So what does it all mean? Old crop soybeans are probably dead in the water given the continued slowdown in the crush and doubtfully we see any increase in export. New crop soybeans will probably try and maintain a bit of weather premium (unless forecasts change) while debating the idea of increased acres.

Daily Support & Resistance – 06/11

Nov Beans: $14.40 – $14.80

Dec Meal: $390.0 – $402.0

Dec Soy Oil: $65.00 – ???

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