Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

July Soybeans closed 17 ¼ cents lower ($14.48 ½), August 24 cents lower ($14.02) & Nov 30 ¼ cents lower ($13.43 ¼)

July Soybean Meal closed $6.8 higher ($379.2), August $5.9 higher ($379.7) & Dec $3.8 higher ($383.1)

July Soybean Oil closed 350 pts lower ($62.07), August 350 pts lower ($59.84) & Dec 350 pts lower ($57.83)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – Old crop vs. -100 +200 K T. expected – new crop vs. 100-300 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 100-300 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-25 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 0-25 K T. expected – New crop vs. none expected

Soybeans get pressured from limit down soybean oil and forecasts for beneficial weather beginning next week. Soybean oil gets pressured from lower palm oil and the thought bio-fuel mandates may see some easing. Soybean meal gets support from inter-market spreading vs. lower soybean oil but not enough support to sway the lower soybean market. It is my understanding that the soybean plant has better resiliency against the current hot & dry this early in the season vs. the corn plant so that’s why the current forecasts for beneficial weather next week weighs more on the soybeans vs. corn. This past winter all we heard out of Brazil was hot & dry but with timely rains they turned out a pretty good soybean crop.

Weekly soybean, soybean oil and soybean meal are all advertising the party is over for now. Granted we still have the majority of the growing season ahead of us but if weather forecasts for decent growing conditions turns out to be true selling rallies vs. buying breaks seems like it would be the better MO for trading. After the dramatic drop November soybeans has seen over the last three days one would think we would see an attempt at some stabilization as we move closer to Friday. What if the forecasts are wrong about the beneficial moisture come up short? Long term the party may be over but in the short term I question the need to sell into the current break.

Daily Support & Resistance – 06/17

Nov Beans: $13.25 – $13.60

Dec Meal: $380.0 – $390.0

Dec Soy Oil: $56.00 – $60.25

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.