Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

July Soybeans closed 19 cents higher ($14.15), August 15 ¼ cents higher ($13.70 ¼) & Nov 6 ¼ cents higher ($13.19 ¼)

July Soybean Meal closed $0.3 lower ($373.1), August $1.4 lower ($372.4) & Dec $4.2 lower ($374.9)

July Soybean Oil closed 221 pts higher ($60.33), August 197 pts higher ($58.68) & Dec 192 pts higher ($57.93)

USDA announces Soybean Export Sales – 336 K T. new crop sold to China, 120 K T. to unknown

Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 175.3 K T. vs. 100-300 K T. expected

It’s a wild trade for soybeans Sunday night into Monday. 50 cents ranges for old crop soybeans and 40 + cent ranges for new crop. Soybeans were down hard Sunday responding to the rain that moved through the Midwest over the weekend. After further assessment the idea was that the some of the drier areas missed out and won’t be seeing anymore chances this week. There is additional rain in the forecast for later this week but the dry Dakotas is not expected to see any. Adding to the rebound in soybeans was the confirmation of Friday’s rumor of China buying US soybeans. On Friday the rumor was they bought 480 K T. for October shipment. This morning the USDA announced 336 K T. sold to China and 120 K t. sold to unknown. Soybean oil was also a bullish force for soybeans today as prices moved noticeably off of their nighttime lows prompted by new highs in the crude oil market. Soybean meal at one time did rally out of the Sunday night hole but struggled to maintain any positive momentum as buying bean oil selling meal kept this market from going anywhere.

Soybean ratings are expected to show another decline this week. Trade ideas are suggesting 60% GE (-2%). The USDA reports the national soybean rating is now 60% GE (-2%).

Weather weather who’s got the weather? Yes, our day-to-day trade will continue to be dominated by existing weather as well as forecasts. Soybeans are made in late July, August (a lot of early planted soybeans this year). The upcoming Quarterly Stocks report I don’t should be much of a surprise as it’s pretty will known old crop soybeans are relatively tight. The Acreage report could be the wild card. As of this writing the attitude is we will see an acreage increase but not as much as we could see in corn. Like corn, however, it will be critical where we see any acreage increases. If they’re in the Dakotas is it could be moot given the conditions they have up there. In the meantime volatility is here to stay and I doubt breaks will be sustained until we have a few more answers.

Daily Support & Resistance – 06/22

Nov Beans: $13.10 – $13.50

Dec Meal: $370.0 – $382.0

Dec Soy Oil: $56.00 – 60.50

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