Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

July Soybeans closed 13 ¾ cents lower ($13.71 ¼), August 12 cents lower ($13.34) & Nov 8 ½ cents lower ($12.91 ¾)

July Soybean Meal closed $8.4 lower ($345.8), August $8.6 lower ($345.9) & Dec $8.8 lower ($350.8)

July Soybean Oil closed 57 pts higher ($62.70), August 60 pts higher ($61.27) & Dec 62 pts higher ($60.16)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 141.6 K T. old crop vs. -100 +175 K T. expected – 47.3 K T. new crop vs. 200-800 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 387.6 K T. old crop vs. 125-300 K T. expected – 22.1 K T. new crop vs. 0-50 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – 2.4 K T. old crop vs. -4 +25 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected

USDA announces Soybean Export Sales – 132.0 K T. sold to China, 260 K T. sold to Unknown

Soybeans see a similar trade to that of corn. It gets whacked early and then tries to retrace the break for the balance of the session. The number one issue behind the break was the overnight rainfall in eastern Nebraska and Iowa. The amounts weren’t all that great but there will be more moisture around for the next few days. Weekly export sales were decent for old crop soybeans but not so for the new crop as they featured some minor Chinese cancellations. My guess is these were higher priced purchases that were recently replaced through the daily reporting system (330.0 K T. announced yesterday and another 392.0 K T. announced today). Soybean oil managed to hold on to its daily gains as energy prices stay firm. Soybean meal continues to drag despite trying to bounce off of its early lows.

Today’s early break had November soybeans coming within 20 cents of the interim spike low registered just last Thursday. The near 40 cent bounce from the early morning lows is trying to suggest from a technical point of view we may have gone low enough for the near term. Short term resistance levels for Nov beans come in at $13.25 ad $13.50. Soybean oil and soybean meal continue to go in different directions. Dec soybean oil has flagged back up to its first level of minor resistance; the $60.00 level. Resistance gets a bit thicker from $61.00 to $63.00. Dec soybean meal is trying to honor its suspected support at $350.0 to $340.0 but so far does not look too encouraging.

Daily Support & Resistance – 06/25

Nov Beans: $12.75 – $13.10

Dec Meal: $345.0 – $360.0

Dec Soy Oil: $57.00 – $62.25

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