May Soybeans closed 3 ¼ cents higher ($9.02), July 3 ½ cents higher ($9.15 ¼) & Nov 2 ¾ cents higher ($9.34 ½)
May Soybean Meal closed $1.0 higher ($310.1), July $1.0 higher ($313.8) & Dec $1.1 higher ($321.4)
May Soybean Oil closed 3 pts higher ($29.07), July 3 pts higher ($29.38) & Dec 1 pt higher ($30.13)
USDA announces 133.7 K T. old crop soybeans sold to unknown
Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 800 K – 1.150 M T. expected – new crop vs. 0-100 K T. expected
Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 100-300 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected
Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 8-30 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected
The failure of the USDA to increase the old crop soybean carryout suggests they are holding out for a trade deal with China sooner vs. later. Do they think that if a trade deal is done China will buy enough old crop soybeans to meet their 51.03 M T. projection (currently at 31.87 M T.)? US origin is not competitive in the short term nor in the longer term. Because the market did not sell off following this report modest speculative short covering has ensued. Soybean oil did have a constructive looking supply-demand report but unfortunately so much of the bean oil trade is dictated by what goes on in the palm oil market. Soybean meal goes the route of soybeans.
Like corn the US producer is not a willing seller of soybeans. With this said the interior soybean basis reads steady to better. The Gulf market, however, is holding onto its recent easing trend. Soybean spreads had a fractionally bullish bias on the day. Interior offers to sell cash soybean meal run mostly unchanged. Gulf offers, however, firm ever so slightly. Meal spreads ran unchanged upfront; lost one tick to the new crop.
The overall technical picture for soybeans has not changed; a down channel within a larger sideways mode. The short term look is starting to look a bit positive. Trendline resistance for July beans comes into focus in the mid-$9.20’s. There are probably enough frustrated shorts in market to get this level tested. Soybean meal’s ability to stand in suggests a test of the $318.0 – $320.0 level (July). July bean oil looks like it wants to see what the $30.00 level looks like.
Daily Support & Resistance for 04/11
July Soybeans: $9.08 – $9.22
July Soybean Meal: $311.0 – 317.0
July Soybean Oil: $29.15 – $29.80
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.